As of 13:00 on December 30 (UTC+8), the crypto market is short-term bearish, with medium-term mixed bullish and bearish signals leaning towards consolidation; low liquidity amplifies volatility, making trend breakthroughs difficult to form.

Quick Overview of Key Conclusions

- Short-term (1–3 trading days): Predominantly bearish. Price oscillations are weak, sentiment is extremely fearful, institutional ETF fund outflows are ongoing, and low liquidity makes large orders more disruptive.
- Medium-term (1–2 weeks): Bull-bear contest. Regulatory compliance provides long-term support, but macroeconomic tightening and year-end capital repatriation suppress risk appetite.

Key Observation Checklist (Bearish)

1. Price and Sentiment: BTC at $87,209 (down 0.7% intraday), 24-hour volatility at 4.05%; Fear & Greed Index at 23 (extreme fear).
2. Capital Flows: Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow of $175 million in one day, with BlackRock IBIT and Grayscale GBTC as main outflow channels.
3. Liquidity and Trading: 24-hour trading volume shrank over 30% to $14.55 billion, low liquidity amplifies price swings and hampers trend breakthroughs.
4. Macro and Capital Preference: Federal Reserve hints at slower rate cuts, phased withdrawal of funds from high-risk assets, and the “digital gold” narrative for BTC has not materialized.

Key Observation Checklist (Bullish)

1. On-chain and Long-term Funds: MicroStrategy increased BTC holdings by 2,138 coins, with support from buy orders near $87,000; long-term holders are not panic selling, and some BTC has been withdrawn from exchanges.
2. Regulatory Progress: US stablecoin regulation implemented, EU MiCA regulation enforced, Hong Kong improves stablecoin regulations, reducing long-term compliance risks and facilitating institutional entry.

Trading and Risk Management Recommendations

- Positioning: Light holdings or wait-and-see approach; avoid heavy bets on direction.
- Stop-loss: For short-term trading, always set stop-loss orders. Refer to $86,000 for BTC, and around $2,900 for ETH.
- Pace: Quick in-and-out trading; prioritize waiting for range breaks (e.g., BTC stabilizing above $90,000 or dropping below $86,000) before taking positions.
- Targets: Focus on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, avoid low-liquidity altcoins to prevent “flash crash” risks.