Seeing the news that a major institution increased its ETH holdings by 1 billion USD, the only thought that flashes through my mind is: retail investors are about to send money again.

Over the past three months, I’ve discovered a particularly painful pattern—whenever this institution makes a high-profile statement, the trend of ETH should be questioned, even looked at downward. But this time? Still, a bunch of people hear "increase" and immediately chase up at $2,940.

Why am I not that excited? I looked at on-chain data and understood: this institution started accumulating ETH when it was still at $3,400 in early November. Up to now, they’ve bought a total of 580,000 ETH, investing 1.72 billion USD, with an average cost of $3,208. Now, at $2,940, they’re sitting on an unrealized loss of 141 million USD. Even more brutal, they’ve also leveraged—borrowing 8.87 billion USDT from a lending protocol, nearly double leverage.

Many see this data and go all-in, but I need to clarify one thing: institutional accumulation is not a bottom signal at all.

What’s the difference? Institutions can absorb paper losses; retail investors cannot. They manage over 10 billion USD, and this 1.7 billion USD ETH position only accounts for 17%. Even if ETH drops another 50%, their overall account would only lose 8.5%. But retail investors? Fully invested or even leveraged, if ETH drops 20%, their accounts could be wiped out.

And a more painful point: institutions play the waiting game, retail investors play the fast-food game.

They build positions gradually over two months; retail investors see a tweet and go all in that night. The next day, when ETH drops to $2,800, they start panicking. Institutions are calculating cycles; retail investors are waiting for tomorrow’s rise—that’s the fundamental difference.

I have to say something less pleasant: sometimes, institutional accumulation is just marketing.

History’s big crashes and project collapses have long taught us that what you think is a bottom might just be when they need liquidity.

In plain words: the good news you see might just be signals for them to get you in.

Ask yourself three realistic questions: Is this money really idle? Can you calmly watch it drop another 30%? Do you have the patience to wait 3 to 6 months? If the answer is no, don’t move.

If you really want to participate, don’t just copy institutional conclusions—learn from their tactics. For example, if you have 100,000 RMB to buy ETH, don’t buy all at once. Buy 30% at the current price, and if it drops another 10%, buy another 30%. Keep the remaining 40% for the final move.

And always have a bottom line: if you bought at $2,940, get out if it drops to $2,500. It’s okay to be wrong; preserving capital is the real skill. Wait for the real bottom.

Remember this final sentence: institutional accumulation is their performance, not your reference. Your task is not to participate in this show but to stay alive and see the next round.