Long-term Speculation: The Mainstream Economic Theme of the Next Century

I am not a stock picking expert. I believe in a broad, low-win-rate (≤53%) betting strategy, but I am willing to bet everything on one point: long-term speculation will be the mainstream socio-economic theme for the next century.

This also explains why people over 40 advise you to focus on your job and seek raises, while people of other ages ignore this advice and pursue any opportunity that might make them rich overnight.

The best product to sell to these groups is hope. Once you understand this, you can see why various casinos (including decentralized exchanges, prediction markets, etc.) have emerged, and why trading mentors, business celebrities, paid courses, and of course, paid Substack columns are so popular.

The Beginning of the Dilemma

Being trapped doesn’t necessarily require a tangible prison. Today, a generation is moving forward with invisible shackles.

They know a certain kind of life exists: owning a house and a car, living steadily, and earning returns after thirty years of hard work. They know some people are living this way, but they cannot imagine how to get there themselves. It’s not about difficulty; they simply cannot chart a feasible path from their current situation to their ideal life.

The traditional path to wealth accumulation has long been closed—not just more difficult, but completely blocked. When the Baby Boomer generation, holding nearly 50% of the nation’s wealth with only 20% of the population, and Millennials with the same proportion, only hold about 10%, the inherent flaws in this wealth accumulation mechanism are exposed.

The ladder to climb upward has been pulled away. This isn’t intentional on the part of the Baby Boomers; rising asset prices naturally benefit asset holders. But regardless of the original intention, the outcome is the same.

Collapse of Traditional Contracts

In the past, society’s implicit contract was simple: go to work on time, work diligently, be loyal to your company, and you will be rewarded. Companies would provide pensions, seniority mattered greatly, and houses would appreciate quietly while you slept. If you trusted this system, it would operate for you.

Today, this contract has become a piece of paper with no real meaning.

Working at a company for 20 years is no longer a career advantage; it’s now a form of professional debt. Salaries have only increased by 8%, while housing prices have doubled, and debt pressures on young people have surged by about 33%. Patience alone no longer provides a path to wealth.

I once thought the situation was bad enough, but with the rise of artificial intelligence and the impending economic shocks it will bring, I realize the situation will only worsen.

When systems no longer reward patience, people naturally abandon patience. This is rational adaptation.

Driving and Pulling Forces

Currently, two forces are propelling young people forward.

Pull: Unmet Higher-Order Needs

Modern society has largely addressed basic Maslow needs. Food is cheap, basic housing is accessible, and while safety, healthcare, and stable employment are not guaranteed, they are sufficient for most young people not to struggle for survival.

For the older generation facing economic pressures, it’s a different dilemma. When you worry about basic needs, you have no time to think about the meaning of life. Hard work is the obvious choice because not doing so means starving. You accept a stable job, stay compliant—after all, that job is your livelihood.

But this generation doesn’t have such survival shackles.

Once survival needs are met, humans pursue higher needs: belonging, respect, and self-actualization. They crave rich life experiences, meaning in life, and a sense of direction and purpose, rather than day-to-day repetition. Yet, the traditional paths to these higher needs—buying a house, career advancement, financial security—are all blocked.

Essentially, we are like a group of instinctive apes scratching at the “scar” of self-actualization, bleeding but helpless, not knowing how to break the deadlock.

Pull: The Escalating Anxiety of Survival

AI is eating away at white-collar jobs, and this is a well-known fact.

This anxiety is not unfounded. ChatGPT writes copy better than most entry-level marketers; Midjourney produces visual works far beyond beginner designers; Cursor and Claude write code capable of passing reviews. Except for those severely lagging in skills, almost everyone recognizes this.

Every month, new tests show that AI has reached or surpassed human levels in tasks that once required high education and years of training.

White-collar workers, or those eager to improve their financial situation, are watching their career longevity shrink day by day. Three years ago, “AI will replace knowledge workers” was just a thought experiment; now, it’s a preset in corporate planning. Everyone is asking “when” to be replaced, not “if,” and the predicted timing keeps moving forward.

Adding to this is social media, which makes you perpetually dissatisfied with your current life.

The ultimate goal of algorithms is to show you lives you could have—vacation spots you’ve never visited, apartments you can’t afford, a higher-tier refined lifestyle. No matter what stage of life you’re in, someone is living the life you envy, and the algorithm can precisely push it right in front of you.

The older generation’s exposure to others’ lives is limited to neighbors, colleagues, or a few celebrities in magazines, with a very narrow frame of reference. But now, the frame is infinitely broad. A 25-year-old earning $70,000 a year will constantly see content about peers earning $2 million, living in Bali, working only four hours a day. The standard of “good” keeps rising.

You will never catch up. No matter what achievements you have, social media always makes you see what you lack. The gap between your real life and your ideal life is maintained tightly by the algorithm, forever unbridgeable.

On one side, AI is shrinking career prospects; on the other, social media makes satisfaction impossible. The pressure to “escape the dilemma while you still can” grows daily.

Anxiety is everywhere. Every white-collar worker has pondered: “Can AI replace my job? When?” Most answers are not optimistic. Even those who believe they are safe for now find that this “temporary” period is shrinking constantly.

Thus, this generation faces a dilemma: they cannot afford the traditional milestones of life, yet believe that the traditional paths may disappear before they reach them. With money and opportunities still in hand, taking a gamble becomes the most rational choice.

Why work hard for a promotion that might not exist in ten years?

Maslow’s Trap

When you can survive but cannot move forward, something inside collapses. You’re not yet desperate enough to accept any conditions, but you’re blocked from the truly important opportunities. The energy once used for survival turns into frustration, confusion, and relentless pursuit of possible escape routes.

Career advancement is not just about salary increases; it’s about gaining purpose, identity, and the sense that “your work has value.” Financial security is not just about money; it’s about having the confidence to take risks, the freedom to travel, and the ability to create.

When these paths are blocked, and the window to achieve goals shrinks, there must be an outlet for pressure. These “prisoners” desperately need a way out—and need it now.

Casinos: The Only Lifeline

I first saw this phenomenon in the blockchain space of cryptocurrency, initially dismissing it as a passing trend. Later, it appeared in the NFT space, then intensified in the chaos of perpetual decentralized exchanges, and now it has spread to the so-called “prediction market supercycle.”

Young people unwilling to grind away at the same company are willing to spend months studying crypto trading; they invest huge amounts of energy researching prediction markets, trying to understand this “manipulated economy” they believe in; those mocking traditional investing as an “inside game” will bet their rent on a meme coin.

Why?

Because casinos are the only place where they can feel a sense of control. Here, their decisions might open the door to a higher level of life within their own time frame.

Traditional career paths? Promotions depend on seniority, not ability, and your department can be automated away at any moment. Stock investing? Sure, you can earn 10% annually and buy a house after 47 years—if your job still exists then.

But cryptocurrencies? Prediction markets? Sports betting? Here, your research really matters, and your confidence can bring returns. Even a “self-deluded advantage” is entirely yours, no reliance on others. In these fields, your judgment directly determines the outcome.

Casinos do have a house edge, and most people will lose in the end. I believe most people understand this. But they still choose to participate because they refuse to wait for a future that may never come. Those who advise “stop gambling” simply don’t understand the predicament of these “prisoners,” and often carry a sense of intellectual superiority—“you’re playing a negative expected value game.” My view is: these gamblers are fully aware of this.

Those who say “gambling is harmful, you should stop” mostly come from privileged upper financial classes. They see a way out and can find a path, so they promote the benefits of “playing it safe.”

But for countless people trapped in financial cages, gambling is their salvation. And the advice of those who discourage it is no different from condemning them to a lifetime of despair. That’s why they resist, and why your earnest words often fall on deaf ears.

Cold Data: Reality Behind the Frenzy

What do the numbers say?

Prediction markets: In November 2025, the trading volume of Polymarket and Kalshi alone exceeded $10 billion, with annual total approaching $40 billion. In 2020, this figure was nearly zero, with a steep, almost vertical growth curve.

Sports betting: Legal sports betting revenue soared from $24.8 million in 2017 to $13.7 billion in 2024. Millennials and Gen Z contributed 76% of the betting volume, with activity on online sports betting platforms increasing by 7% year-over-year.

TransUnion’s report defines these bettors as “speculators”: city renters, frequent users of crypto apps, active on mobile trading platforms. These young people, shut out of traditional wealth-building paths, are betting everything in markets that offer asymmetric returns.

Validation from Economic Theory

When people are in a dilemma, their risk preferences change.

Economists call this phenomenon “loss convexity utility”: when you are already at a loss, you prefer to gamble rather than accept a small, certain loss—even if the chance of winning back is tiny. This explains why people double down after losing in blackjack, and why lottery sales are higher in low-income communities.

In my view, driven by social media and higher-order needs, those far from the upper financial echelons develop an illusion of “already losing.” The “break-even point” benchmark is raised entirely. This also explains why some sincerely say, “an annual income of $150,000 is considered poverty alleviation.” This generation gambles not just to survive, but to truly live.

When basic needs are met but higher needs are blocked, money’s meaning shifts from “security” to “getting an entry ticket”—an entry ticket to experiences, freedom, and the unreachable ideal life. Houses are no longer just shelters but symbols of rootedness, community-building, and adulthood; travel is no longer a luxury but a meaningful experience that makes life worth living.

For this generation, since traditional means offer no hope of achieving these goals, the expected value of taking a risk begins to surpass that of grinding away. If your baseline is “staying in place forever,” then even a perceived 5% chance of a turnaround is far more attractive than a 100% chance of being stuck.

This is not financial ignorance but rational choice under constrained circumstances.

Those meme coin speculators, sports bettors, prediction market regulars, and paid course buyers all understand the slim odds. They also know they have no other options. When faced with only two choices—“certainly stuck” or “likely stuck but with a slim chance”—anyone will choose the latter.

Long-term Speculation

So, what should we bet on?

If I’m right, this generation of young people locked in economic hardship will continue seeking control through highly volatile financial products; therefore, all avenues that satisfy such needs are worth long-term investment.

Regardless of wins or losses, the platform always wins. What you’re looking for are platforms that don’t care about users’ wins or losses, only profit from transaction fees, and their trading activity is continuously rising.

Entrepreneurship: The “escape from 9-to-5” industry landscape is expanding rapidly. Some sell drop-shipping tutorials, others teach agency models, and some promote “monthly income of ten thousand.” “Becoming an entrepreneur and boss” has long become a societal “lottery”—it sounds positive, empowering, and like building your own career. Most entrepreneurs will fail, but that doesn’t dampen enthusiasm, just like low odds don’t reduce lottery sales.

Prediction markets: Polymarket’s valuation has reached $8-10 billion. The overall potential market size of this sector is comparable to the entire gambling industry, exceeding one trillion dollars. Even if this estimate is 90% inflated, it’s still an enormous market.

Crypto infrastructure: Custody, trading, staking, lending—each speculative wave needs new entry channels. Coinbase, Robinhood’s crypto division, various professional exchanges—regardless of market ups and downs, they profit from trading volume.

Sports betting operators: DraftKings, FanDuel, and their infrastructure providers. Legal sports betting is gradually expanding across US states, with regulatory barriers creating a solid moat.

Social trading and community platforms: Discord, X (Twitter), Substack. These gather massive attention, and users are willing to pay for “exclusive insider info.”

What we’re betting on is not the win or loss of individual speculators but the persistence of this phenomenon. The underlying economic conditions driving young people into high-risk speculation will not change easily. Platforms that profit from fees will grow with their user base. Those trapped in financial cages will keep betting, endlessly.

Considering the development trends of AI, soaring housing prices, unequal wealth distribution, and intergenerational economic gaps… Is all this really just a temporary phenomenon?

Moral Reflection

It’s important to clarify that my discussion is descriptive, not prescriptive.

Watching a generation place their financial salvation in various “lotteries” is not something to celebrate. When prediction markets and meme coins become the only way people seek control, it’s a symptom of societal dysfunction. House edges always favor the house, and most players will ultimately lose.

But understanding what’s happening can help you find your position. It allows reflection on the current situation and helps you decide whether to participate. If you choose to join, you must stay sober and only bet in areas where you have an advantage.

Every era’s casino profits from people’s despair. And the current despair is real, verifiable, and worsening. These casinos—Polymarket, Coinbase, DraftKings—are vendors of hope—they continuously extract fees and make huge profits.

You can stand on moral high ground criticizing all this, or you can choose to engage with these platforms. Ironically, the latter is one of the few paths that might allow you to escape the financial cage. Or you can join the gamblers— but if you do, you must do so to the extreme.

Because this is not a game. We are talking about your life. If you’re going to bet your life, you must do everything possible to maximize your chances of winning.

Conclusion

Let me tell you a true story.

I know someone very smart, working in the tech industry. By any historical standard, his income is quite substantial. Last month, he invested $100,000 to boost platform points on a certain perpetual decentralized exchange. He did this not because he thought it was a good investment.

But because, in his words: “What else can I do? Save money for twenty years and buy an apartment at 55?”

I know that when the next decentralized exchange appears, he will gamble again.

The era of long-term speculation has just begun.