#预测市场 After reading this analysis on market manipulation, I thought of a very practical question: when market prices start to seriously diverge from fundamentals, what should we do?

The hypothetical scenario mentioned in the article for 2028 is not just alarmist. Historically, manipulative attempts have repeatedly played out—from the betting markets in 1916, to large orders on InTrade in 2012, and to this year's actions by French investors on Polymarket. What's more troubling is that even if manipulation ultimately doesn't change the election results, the panic of "the market has been manipulated" itself can undermine people's trust in information.

Let me be honest: what does this mean for prudent investors? **In any market, areas with poor liquidity are always the riskiest**. Prediction markets are no exception. When price fluctuations lack clear reasons, when trading volume suddenly surges, or when reports repeatedly focus on a certain price—these are signals we need to stay alert to.

What is the true defensive strategy? First, focus on trading activity rather than just price trends; second, compare multiple information sources—polls, fundamentals, market consensus—rather than relying on a single indicator; finally, when unexplained sharp volatility occurs, don't be swayed by public opinion, leave room for your own thinking.

Prediction markets themselves are not the problem; the issue lies in how we perceive, utilize, and who is behind the narrative. In the long run, judgments that withstand scrutiny and time tend to be more valuable than short-term market noise.