Bitcoin is currently at a dangerous structural turning point. If you look at the past four-year cycles, this story has played out repeatedly: an 87% crash in 2014, an 84% crash in 2018, and a 78% crash in 2022. Now, it seems the melody of history is about to repeat itself.

From a cyclical perspective, this expansion phase is likely to undergo a significant correction before January 2026, targeting a key liquidity zone around forty thousand dollars. Don’t be fooled by the recent price of ninety-three thousand dollars—most of the gains come from derivatives trading, lacking real support from the spot market, making it very fragile.

Another detail worth noting: Bitcoin usually gains momentum towards the end of a half-year period, but this time it underperformed, even falling 3% below the beginning of the year. Although the total cryptocurrency market cap still has a long-term trend line supporting it at nearly 29 trillion dollars, if it cannot hold the 93,340-dollar line before the end of the year, it may confirm the arrival of a bear market divergence.

Bottom line reminder: Be prepared for intense volatility, as the cycle transition is just around the corner.