I recently noticed an interesting phenomenon. The 4-hour chart of ZEC shows a quite contradictory situation — on the surface, the technical signals and the on-chain large holders' actual trading directions are completely opposite. This kind of divergence often indicates that there will be intense market volatility soon.

Let's first look at what has happened on the news front. The big whale known in the community for aggressively shorting yesterday took profits of over 3 million USD, then turned around to add to their short position and continues to increase it. Currently, their total short position amounts to 163 million USD, with over 20 million USD in ZEC shorts. Although they are currently showing an unrealized loss of nearly 4.5 million USD, they are still building their position — what does this behavior indicate? It suggests that this big holder is truly determined, even willing to endure short-term losses, to bet that ZEC will drop sharply.

The technical side tells a different story. On the 4-hour K-line, ZEC is around $532, and the MACD has already formed a golden cross above the zero line, clearly indicating an upward trend. From a purely technical perspective, the short-term bulls are in control, and testing the $550 resistance level is highly probable next. The key support is at $500, with strong support at $450.

So, the current situation is: on one side, on-chain whales are betting with real money on a decline; on the other side, the K-line technical indicators show upward momentum. The opinions of the bulls and bears are extremely polarized, which is exactly when the market is most prone to sharp fluctuations. In the range of $500 to $550, the battle will be quite intense.