In the past week, Bitcoin has repeatedly played out the same script—rising up and then being hammered back down. On December 22, 26, and 29, three rounds occurred. It doesn't seem like a coincidence but rather a systemic issue.

My most intuitive feeling is that, in the short term, this market is unlikely to see a major breakthrough. The overall macro pressure, contract leverage structure, and tight liquidity at year-end are locking the market firmly in place.

**The US Stock Market is the Main Driver**

To put it simply, Bitcoin is now dancing with the US stock market. When it drops today, it’s basically following the rhythm of the Nasdaq 100 futures (down 0.5%). As market risk appetite tightens, Bitcoin immediately leads the decline. This correlation has never been so strong before.

**Leverage Structure Trap**

Every time Bitcoin approaches $90,000, it attracts a wave of aggressive long-following capital. Contract positions pile up, funding rates soar, and the scene looks lively. But the problem is—once it falls back, stop-losses and liquidations trigger chain reactions, creating a waterfall-like sell-off.

Data from Coinglass reveals clues: global open interest in futures once hit a new high during the surge but has now fallen back to 662,000 BTC. This indicates that the previous wave of long-following funds was partially liquidated at this price range.

**Time Zone Game**

The most painful part is the time difference. Asian markets often recover the trend, only for the US market to dump again when it opens. The reason is understandable—year-end tax clearing and fund settlements make US investors more inclined to take profits quickly. When liquidity worsens, declines tend to cascade.

**Key Levels Are These**

The current issue isn’t whether Bitcoin will hit $90,000 again but whether it can hold steady once it does.

Looking upward: to close above $90,000 on the daily chart, Bitcoin needs to stay above this level at the close, and not break below during pullbacks. If achieved, there’s a chance to force short-squeeze positions to close, with targets around $95,000 to $100,000.

Looking downward: if $85,000 is broken, deleveraging effects will accelerate the decline, and the $86,000 line becomes a critical support. Breaking below could lead straight to $80,000. The $91,000 level is the breakout point for a rebound.

**Market Liquidity Tells a Contradictory Story**

Interestingly, spot ETF net outflows over the past 10 days exceeded $1.5 billion, which indeed suppresses recent gains. But institutional custodial accounts (like major platforms) are still seeing inflows, indicating that some real players are not fully bearish. Funds are playing a tug-of-war.

**Waiting Is the Current Strategy**

Short-term outlook: Bitcoin will likely oscillate between $86,000 and $91,000. The real turning point will only come after the 2026 open. Changes in quarterly fund allocations, ETF flows, and US policy expectations—once there’s a new development, the situation will change. For now, the market is just waiting for a reason to convince funds to re-enter.