#战略性加仓BTC The Bank of Japan accelerates its balance sheet reduction; how far can the rate hike cycle go?

In Q3 2025, the Bank of Japan launched an accelerated exit from quantitative easing. This round of actions was significant—the total assets shrank by 22.3 trillion yen month-on-month, falling from its peak by a total of 61.2 trillion yen, with the balance sheet size dropping to 695 trillion yen. This is the lowest point since 2022, directly returning to the level of 2020.

The logic behind balance sheet reduction is quite clear: firstly, to stabilize the yen exchange rate; secondly, to ease domestic inflation pressures. Over the past two years, there have been many claims about the Bank of Japan's shareholding ratio, but to clarify, the BOJ had already fully divested from bank stocks held for financial stability purposes by July 2025, and currently holds no related shares. Historical data has never shown such a high shareholding ratio.

The policy rate was raised to 0.75% on December 19, the first time in 30 years. But honestly, this is at most a marginal adjustment of easing policies; it’s still a long way from true monetary policy normalization.

What’s next? Opinions vary. The BOJ’s official stance is that real interest rates are still low, and there is room for further rate hikes. The next decision will depend on core CPI, spring wage negotiations, and the resilience of economic recovery. Mainstream institutions generally predict the next rate hike may be in mid-2026, with the terminal rate targeting 1.25%. However, some voices—such as Nomura Securities—believe that rate hikes might pause in 2026, and the real adjustment window could be pushed to 2027.

For investors optimistic about risk assets like $BTC, this pace change directly impacts global liquidity expectations and warrants close attention.