Recently, there has been a noteworthy trend on the blockchain: a large holder with a long position of 750 million USD has made two large ETH deposits into exchanges within just a few days. On the 24th, they deposited 100,000 ETH, and recently another 112,000 ETH, equivalent to 332 million USD. The same person, the same exchange, and the same operational direction—this is definitely no coincidence.

From a capital perspective, although short-term contract funds are still flowing in, spot funds and longer-term funds are continuously net outflowing. What does this mean? Influential whales are quietly planning to sell spot holdings, while the market's short-term enthusiasm is entirely sustained by contract funds.

The 1-hour chart of ETH clearly shows a downtrend, which is a hard fact. The only somewhat hopeful sign is that the MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero line, but honestly, this is like grabbing a branch when falling from a tall building—it can at best slow down the descent but cannot change the fate of continued decline.

The path upward is paved with thorns, requiring a continuous breakthrough of the key level at 2965. In the short term, the market's fragility has become quite evident.