Recently, I focused on an interesting on-chain data point: a large holder with a position worth 7.5 billion USD has made two large deposits to exchanges over the past week, totaling over 113,000 ETH, equivalent to about 330 million USD. The frequency and scale of these operations are definitely worth pondering.

**The Honesty of On-Chain Signals**

Honestly, compared to various technical indicators, the real actions of big on-chain holders often better reflect market sentiment. Doing this for two consecutive weeks is unlikely to be just for accumulating coins—there are only two explanations: either they think the current price is a good point to sell, or they have detected some market risk signals that haven't been widely recognized yet. Throwing this magnitude of weight onto exchanges is like hanging a sword over the market.

**The "Eerie Harmony" of Technicals**

This does seem a bit strange. In the short term, the 1-hour MACD shows a bullish crossover below the zero line, indicating some short-term rebound momentum. But when you widen the view, the 5-hour, daily, and weekly charts all flash sell signals. Even more bizarre is the funding situation: short-term inflows are significant, but funds on the 4-hour and higher levels have already started to withdraw. It’s like the main force is doing a "pull-up to attract buy-in, then gradually offloading" strategy—initially pushing the price higher to lure retail investors, while secretly increasing volume behind the scenes.

**Where Are the Key Levels?**

The 2965 level is a strong short-term resistance zone, unlikely to be broken easily. The next levels are 3060 and 3150. The current rebound looks more like a "dead cat bounce," easing oversold conditions but not changing the overall trend.

The future movement of ETH likely still depends on the actions of that big holder. The market’s power dynamics are clearly laid out.