2025-12-30 08:30:46

#战略性加仓BTC Quarterly deliveries trigger ETH surge, while BTC remains unmoved—has the watershed of 2026 arrived?

I originally thought quarterly deliveries were just normal market fluctuations until I saw the true face of this wave of行情 and realized: $1.17 billion worth of BTC and ETH contracts were settled simultaneously, revealing completely opposite scenarios.

ETH's quarterly contracts soared dramatically, while BTC stayed within a range. This guy lying flat contrasts sharply with ETH's explosive rise—the market's money is really moving elsewhere.

Looking back at 2025, one phenomenon is very striking: BTC, supported steadily by institutional funds, remains the top dog, but ETH's gains have been suppressed. This kind of "divergence" isn't new, but after the delivery, this reversal makes people wonder—are the funds really reallocating?

The key questions are: Is ETH's recent rally a long-term trend, or just a short-term capital game? And how long will BTC's sideways movement last?

As the year turns, the "aftershock" of the delivery hasn't fully dissipated. Two questions need to be clarified: first, can ETH maintain this upward momentum; second, when will BTC break the deadlock? Will 2026's start continue this "strong ETH, weak BTC" divergence, or revert to the old pattern of BTC leading the dance?

Your choice—continue to chase ETH, or wait for BTC to wake up before jumping in?

BTC0,75%

ETH1,75%

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Frontrunner

· 4h ago

Bitcoin is still sleeping, while Ethereum has already taken the lead. This rhythm is truly interesting.

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FrontRunFighter

· 4h ago

nah bro this reeks of classic MEV extraction playbook... 11.7B liquidation engineered to bleed retail while whales sandwich the order flow. notice how btc just sits there? that's not sideways, that's *controlled*. someone's definitely frontrunning these quarterly settlement cascades.

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RadioShackKnight

· 4h ago

The 11.7 billion settlement has caused ETH to soar, while BTC, this old guy, has really taken a backseat. It seems like funds are indeed moving around.

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LayerZeroHero

· 4h ago

Well, this time I finally see ETH showing some temper. BTC's laid-back attitude is honestly a bit off-putting.

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HodlKumamon

· 4h ago

Xiong Xiong has just calculated the capital flow pattern of the 11.7 billion delivery, and the 71.3% increment is indeed tilting towards ETH... But if you think about it calmly, this rotation has occurred 24 times in history, and the follow-up is a return to the mean(◍•ᴗ•◍) --- Wait, I have seen this kind of "squat" of BTC, and the people who invested in DCA have actually been secretly buying the bottom for a long time... --- Do funds really need to be adjusted? Not really, this wave is more like a short-term emotional game, according to the Kelly formula, the current margin of safety of BTC is actually quite sufficient --- [serious face] I just looked at the trading volume data behind this wave of ETH gains, and the popularity is only 43% of the last rebound... It may not last that long --- Bear on the forehead, here is this set of "strong and weak" stories... In fact, the institution is just changing positions, and it will come back later --- Follow ETH or wait for BTC? I choose the third path - both DCA, let time and probability make decisions for us, comfortable~

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LiquiditySurfer

· 4h ago

This wave of capital shifting does have some interesting flavors. The 11.7 billion contract settlements have literally pulled BTC and ETH out of two lines... But honestly, I've seen this kind of short-term divergence many times. The real question is where the liquidity is flowing. BTC's laid-back stance seems to be accumulating something, or it's simply waiting for big players to eat the orders. If ETH's recent rally can't hold, it's definitely a capital game with little prospect. I prefer to wait another two weeks and see what the big whales on the chain are up to. --- Wait, with 11.7 billion settling simultaneously and moving in opposite directions, that logic doesn't quite add up... Are market makers perhaps harvesting both sides? --- Alright, I'll come clean. I don't understand this kind of divergence rhythm, or rather, I don't want to guess. Let's just look at LP yields and on-chain behavior; they tell the real story. --- If Bitcoin really is about to wake up, then ETH's current gains will instantly reverse. But if institutions are truly rebalancing... we might need to redefine what "mainstream coins" mean. --- If 2026 starts with strong ETH and weak Bitcoin, then the traditional financial rotation logic is also alive on the chain. That's quite interesting.

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Rugman_Walking