At 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 31, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting. This document could become a key trigger point for the financial markets at the end of the year.

Market expectations for a rate cut in January are diverging. According to the latest data from CME "FedWatch," the market's probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January has risen to 18.3%, compared to previous levels. However, another mainstream prediction platform, Polymarket, assigns only a 13% probability, a 5 percentage point difference, which is quite noteworthy.

Why is there such a prediction discrepancy? It reflects different interpretations of the Fed's policy direction. CME data tends to be based on futures market pricing logic, while Polymarket aggregates traders' real expectations. This divergence may indicate a split between institutional and retail investors' views on future inflation trends.

The importance of this minutes lies in its potential to reveal key disagreements within the Fed regarding inflation dynamics and future policy paths. The policy tone set in early 2025 often anchors the overall market sentiment for the year, with far-reaching impacts on risk assets—from the movements of US stocks and bonds, to the dollar index, and to the volatility of risk assets like Bitcoin. The wording in the minutes could trigger chain reactions across these markets.

The general consensus is that a "hold" in January is highly probable, but subtle changes in the wording of the minutes will directly influence whether the market remains "calm" or falls into "anxiety." This is also why every FOMC minutes can spark intense discussions among traders.