2025-12-30 09:22:23

The OTC USDT price has been declining continuously, and this time it’s no longer just minor fluctuations.

Currently, in the OTC market, the USDT to RMB transaction price has fallen to around 6.82, while the USD spot exchange rate in the foreign exchange market remains around 7.01. In other words, exchanging stablecoins for RMB is now cheaper than directly converting USD to RMB, with the discount approaching 3%. Compared to the beginning of the month, this gap has significantly widened.

This phenomenon itself is quite abnormal. Normally, deviations in stablecoin prices are caused by short-term liquidity issues or channel costs and do not continue to expand indefinitely. But now, the discount is not quickly recovering; instead, it’s gradually widening. This indicates that it’s not just emotional market fluctuations but the accumulation of real structural selling pressure behind the scenes.

What does the continued weakening of OTC prices signify? It means someone is continuously converting stablecoins into fiat currency, but there are clearly not enough buyers willing to step in. This behavior is unlikely to come from short-term traders and more resembles risk of shorting, active position reduction, or forced stop-loss actions.

The most interesting point is that the US dollar itself has not weakened in the foreign exchange market. In other words, this decline is not because "the dollar has depreciated," but because the market is actively selling off stablecoins. The loss of premium or even deep discounts in stablecoins reflects internal capital attitude changes within the crypto market, rather than macroeconomic dollar cycles.

Historically, whenever stablecoins experience sustained discounts, it indicates two possible scenarios: either risk assets continue to be sold off and capital outflows are not over; or the market is preparing for more severe liquidity tightening.

It’s hard to determine which one it is now, but one thing is certain — this is not a small signal that can be ignored. When stablecoins start selling at a discount, it indicates that the market’s tolerance for risk is quietly decreasing.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

13 Likes

Reward
13
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

OnChainDetective

· 7h ago

6.82 to 7.01, a 3% difference... There must be whales quietly dumping behind the scenes. This is not just a simple liquidity issue; it's a continuous buildup of structural selling pressure. Keep an eye on on-chain transfer data.

View OriginalReply0

MoonWaterDroplets

· 7h ago

Something's not right, stablecoins are all fleeing... This time it really feels different --- 3% discount? It should have been obvious that funds were withdrawing --- It's a bit scary, I can't even trust stablecoins anymore --- Isn't this a signal that big players are clearing out their positions... --- The off-exchange discount is so severe, you really need to be cautious --- The dollar hasn't fallen, but stablecoins are dropping? That’s pure sell-off --- It feels like something's going to happen, someone is continuously dumping --- The increasing discount indicates no one is buying... that's the most terrifying part --- History always repeats itself; every time stablecoins are discounted, it's not good news --- Market tolerance is decreasing, in plain terms, everyone is retreating

View OriginalReply0

MevSandwich

· 7h ago

Is another round of dumping coming? Feels like this isn't over yet. The discount on stablecoins is so fierce, clearly some people are fleeing. USDT can't even hold its ground anymore, we'll have to see what happens next.

View OriginalReply0

SerLiquidated

· 7h ago

This is really happening now. Stablecoins are starting to plunge, indicating that big players are really fleeing. Something's off. This isn't just simple volatility; someone is疯狂抛售. Discounted by 3%? So stablecoins are no longer worth dollars? That's hilarious. This time is different. It's not just short-term sentiment; there are structural issues piling up. Funds are fleeing, and clearly there aren't enough buyers to absorb the sell-off. The dollar hasn't depreciated, but stablecoins are falling? That points to problems within our crypto market itself. History is about to repeat itself. Every discount has never led to anything good. Wait, is this preparing for a bigger liquidation? It's chilling.

View OriginalReply0

ForkTongue

· 7h ago

It's starting to discount again, and this time it really feels different. Are there still people bottom-fishing? It seems everyone is fleeing. History repeats itself: discount → crash, it's time to clear out. This signal really can't be ignored; it's a bit scary. Is it capital outflow, or a liquidity crisis... Anyway, I'm going to stay out of the way for now. The dollar hasn't fallen, but stablecoins are causing all sorts of trouble, quite ironic. There must be a big move coming, it feels like something is brewing. A 3% discount is already quite exaggerated; if it continues like this, it's really dangerous.

View OriginalReply0

RunWithRugs

· 7h ago

The discount margin is really starting to get scary, it feels like big players are quietly fleeing. Stablecoins can't even hold up, the market is definitely sending warning signals. Every time this happens before, it's never a good sign. Better get mentally prepared. People are dumping their positions, no one is taking orders, isn't this just capital fleeing? A bit panicked, but I don't know whether to keep selling or expect a rebound...

View OriginalReply0