Recently, this wave of market movements, Bitcoin's performance has been really quite strange—on December 22nd, 26th, and 29th, three consecutive attempts to push higher failed to hold, and then it turned around and dropped, each time cleanly and decisively. It doesn't seem like a matter of wrong direction, but rather that the timing isn't quite right yet.

**Bitcoin is already uncontrollable**

To be honest, this round of decline is not a "crypto-specific" phenomenon at all. It's basically the Nasdaq 100 futures trending downward (down about -0.5%), and BTC is just following suit. The once independent leader in its own market has now become more of an emotional asset, increasingly linked with traditional finance.

**Breaking through = stacking leverage, this is a structural issue**

Every time the price approaches $90,000, the same script repeats. Funding rates start to rise, bullish chasing emotions are released en masse, and then—just a slight inability to hold the price triggers stop-losses, forced liquidations, and a chain reaction of downward movement. The "breaking the door" pattern isn't a probabilistic event; it's an inevitable structural outcome.

From contract data, each time the threshold is approached, global open interest in futures clearly increases. It has now fallen back to around 662,000 BTC, indicating that deleveraging is underway. This is the core problem—leverage is too high, and once the price hits an unexpected level, the reverse selling pressure can be particularly terrifying.

**Asia is repairing, the US keeps pushing down—this rhythm is the most frustrating**

Recently, there's been a very obvious rhythm: Asia slowly pushes prices up during its session, then the US session pushes down again. Year-end tax settlements and rebalancing of funds cause US-based capital to generally adopt a "sell at the slightest rise" mentality. This imbalance in timing makes the upward force particularly weak.

**The real key isn't whether $90,000 can be touched**

The core question is whether $90,000 can turn from a resistance level into a support level. This is a qualitative shift. If this level can hold steady, bears might rush to cover, and the price could target $95,000 or even $100,000. But if it can't hold, the risks are entirely different.

**Two key price levels: one is the life-and-death line, the other is the opportunity line**

$86,000—this is a structural life-and-death line. Falling below it could trigger a chain of forced liquidations among bulls, with the target possibly heading toward $80,000. This is a level that shouldn't be casually touched.

$91,000—if this level is effectively broken through, it could mean the trend is really about to change.

**Funds are playing the waiting game**

Spot ETF net outflows over the past 10 days have exceeded $1.5 billion, exerting obvious downward pressure on the rally. But this doesn't mean all funds are fleeing—outflows from institutional custody are still ongoing, just indicating that more capital is waiting. Waiting for what? For a clearer pricing window.

**The consolidation range is already quite clear**

Bitcoin is now oscillating within a high-restriction zone between $86,000 and $91,000. Unless quarterly fund adjustments conclude, ETF fund directions become clearer, and US policy expectations gradually materialize, the market seems to be just "waiting for a reason." The trend won't disappear, but it's unlikely to happen right now.