2025-12-30 09:38:19

A classmate suddenly comes to you and says they've been playing a certain prediction market recently, which can forecast cryptocurrency price trends, event outcomes, and even participate in various probability games to make money. He confidently claims that he's made quite a bit recently but lacks startup capital and wants to borrow money from you to continue.

Would you lend him the money?

Honestly, prediction markets seem simple, and the opportunity to grasp future trends is right in front of you. But many people probably haven't truly considered how risky this can be. This isn't ordinary investing; it's a probability game. Most people lose more than they win, and those stories of making money are often just survivor bias.

A more realistic issue is—if he can't even come up with the startup capital, it indicates his risk tolerance is limited. The money you lend becomes his risk capital. If he loses, that money is basically gone, and your relationship could also suffer.

Prediction markets carry risks, and borrowing money to participate increases the risk even more. It's not that we can't make money when others do, but we need to understand our own capacity. Using spare funds is fine, but borrowing money requires careful consideration.

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BtcDailyResearcher

· 5h ago

As long as he can't come up with startup capital, I won't lend. The logic is too simple. Exactly, this kind of prediction market is just a game of probability; losers are always more. Survivor bias kills people. Everyone making money is bragging, while the losers have long shut up. Borrowing money to participate, nine out of ten times you're just giving away money. Friendship also gets sacrificed, not worth it. My classmate also asked me this way. How did I finally do? I just said no. Saved myself a pile of blood, sweat, and tears. This is just gambling disguised as a prediction market. As long as you do your duty with integrity, don't risk more than you can afford. Playing with spare money is fine, but borrowed money? That's playing with your life, brother. Limited risk tolerance and still want to turn things around? Usually, you'll turn faster. Not borrowing, it's that simple. If you lose money, you lose your own.

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BTCWaveRider

· 5h ago

Borrow a ghost? To put it plainly, it's just trying to get you to gamble together. I've heard this "money-making story" too many times, and in the end, it's all empty. The key is that he has no money himself but still wants to do it; this logic is fundamentally flawed. --- Another person brainwashed by survivor bias. If it really made money, why would it lack startup capital? --- Market prediction? Predicting the market? You're kidding me—it's just gambling with a fancy name. --- No borrowing, that's a matter of principle. Even the best friends can't do it. --- Tell me how he made his money, and I'll know whether it's real or fake. --- "Recently made a lot of money"—that's enough to show he lost even more before. --- If money was so easy to make, would he still need to borrow yours? --- A typical case of survivor bias and self-hypnosis. If you borrow, you'll just end up ruining yourself too. --- Lacking startup capital shows you have no risk tolerance at all—that's a sign of money being sent to you. --- Laughing to death. How much is friendship worth? It's so casually consumed like this.

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NotFinancialAdvice

· 5h ago

Bro, you really shouldn't get involved in this kind of thing. Survivor bias kills people. --- Basically, people only borrow money to gamble when they have no money, and that logic itself is flawed. --- I just want to ask, if you're making money, why would you borrow from someone else? --- Predicting the market? Sounds just like gambling with a veneer. --- Relationships are more valuable than money; this account can't be settled. --- Seeing how confident he looks, I know he's probably been cut again. --- Borrowing money to gamble, if you lose, both of you are finished. --- Friends borrowing money to play these kinds of games, really need to think about the consequences. --- Having limited risk tolerance but still boasting confidently—that's a typical newbie mentality. --- This is a game of probability. Most people are in the 99% that lose.

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CommunityWorker

· 5h ago

Borrow? Are you crazy? You should just listen to the story of making money. He doesn't even have the principal to repay and still dares to boast to me. Isn't this just naked gambling? I've seen this survivor bias trick many times. People who really make money are no longer short of cash. What I lent out isn't money; it's a time bomb for our relationship. To put it simply, they want to use my money to try their luck. If they lose, I pay the bill? Impossible.

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GasWrangler

· 5h ago

nah hard pass, if they can't afford the initial stake themselves that's basically telling you everything you need to know about their actual risk tolerance... technically speaking, prediction markets are just high-variance gambling wrapped in financial jargon, and the math simply doesn't favor retail players. survivor bias does the rest.

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