#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Wosh in the prediction market soaring from 7% to 48% in just two days, I suddenly recalled the times of 2016. Back then, we were also watching various prediction markets, observing how the probabilities of different candidates fluctuated dramatically every day — and in the end, no one predicted the actual outcome.

What does Wosh’s reversal of surpassing Hasset this time fundamentally reflect? It’s not that the market suddenly became smarter, but that the power structure is readjusting. Hasset was initially favored because he was seen as too close to Trump; now, for the same reason, he is being questioned, making this reversal quite ironic. As a former Federal Reserve governor, Wosh has a professional background and doesn’t appear "too close to the president." This sense of balance is actually more stable for the transition of power.

From a historical cycle perspective, each change of the Federal Reserve chairperson has stirred waves in the market. From Volcker in 1987 to Greenspan, Greenspan’s policy adjustments in 1993, and the large liquidity releases around Bernanke’s appointment in 2006 — these are not simple personnel changes; they are deeply tied to judgments about the economic direction and policy tone.

The wild swings in the prediction market probabilities essentially indicate that the market’s expectations for policy direction are still very uncertain. This uncertainty itself is the most noteworthy signal. At critical moments of cycle reversal, every change in the Federal Reserve chairperson can influence the monetary policy trajectory in the coming years.