The old crypto playbook finally breaks.

For the last decade, everyone anchored on the 4-year halving loop: Halving → hype → blowoff → bear → repeat.

That rhythm worked when Bitcoin was tiny and retail-driven.

But the data in front of us now says that model is done.

2026 looks like the decisive turning point where crypto fully transitions from a halving-led market to a liquidity and institution-led market.

That shift stretches the cycle from 4 years to closer to 5. Why?
1/ The halving just doesn’t hit like it used to.

Early halvings cut millions of BTC in annual issuance. The 2024 halving cut ~1.3M BTC annualized.

That’s nothing relative to a multi-trillion-dollar asset with ETFs, treasuries, and balance sheets involved. Supply shock still matters structurally, but it no longer sets the tempo.

– Spot ETFs with ~$113B AUM

– BlackRock’s IBIT sitting at ~$67B

– Public companies holding 1M+ BTC on balance sheets
2/ Liquidity is king now.

Global M2, central bank balance sheets, and debt refinancing cycles explain far more of BTC’s movement than the halving calendar.

Bitcoin’s price has shown ~90% correlation with global liquidity metrics, while the 2024 halving barely moved the needle because it landed right into QT.
So what makes 2026 decisive?

– A debt refinancing wall: ~$10T in debt needs refinancing in 2026, which is basically a forced liquidity event in the system.

– Fed posture flips: not QE yet, but the end of active tightening. Historically, just stopping QT has been enough to trigger 20–40% moves in risk assets.

– Regulatory plumbing finishes: the GENIUS Act forces stablecoin and banking rules to be finalized by mid-2026.
A lot of institutional capital that’s been waiting on compliance checklists can actually deploy.

I’m not changing my plan for the 2026 crypto bull. What matters is what you’re holding and how long you can sit on it.

Just surviving long enough to let liquidity and networks do their thing.