The global financial markets have entered a strange state of silence — US stock index futures, the US dollar, and US Treasuries are all on hold, as if everyone is holding their breath, waiting for the same moment.

Here's what’s happening now: Onshore RMB has fallen below 7, spot silver has violently rebounded by 4 percentage points, gold and copper are rising together, while palladium is hitting the limit down. Meanwhile, the crypto market shows a slightly different rhythm — Bitcoin and Ethereum are slightly gaining, as if sniffing out the market’s trend in advance.

Why is this happening? Because the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes for December are about to be released, and this document will provide key signals about the interest rate path through 2026. Remember how divided the last meeting was? The hawks didn’t want to cut, the doves wanted more cuts, and most members took a symbolic 25 basis point cut stance. Now, the dot plot has already hinted that only one rate cut may occur in 2026.

This "playing dead" stance in the market is actually very dangerous. No clear direction ≠ market safety; history repeatedly proves that real volatility often emerges during the quietest moments. After the Fed’s statement at 3 a.m., will the market continue this collective silence, or will it trigger a major upheaval?

Is this the calm before the storm, or just a false alarm caused by a fake move? The answer will be revealed soon.