The cryptocurrency market has indeed been a bit tense these past two days. The fear index has dropped to 23, and the market is still struggling in the "extreme fear" swamp—indicating that investor sentiment remains quite fragile.

From regulatory developments, Korea has been quite active. A case involving CEX employees accepting Bitcoin bribes and recruiting officers to leak information to North Korea has been exposed, with employees sentenced to 4 years; at the same time, South Korea's Digital Asset Basic Act is progressing, aiming to include no-fault compensation mechanisms and stablecoin bankruptcy isolation systems. The government’s version of the plan may be delayed until next year. This shows that countries are gradually deepening their institutional management of crypto assets.

On the macro level, US Treasury volatility may see its largest annual decline since 2009. The Federal Reserve injected $16 billion in liquidity early this morning, the second-largest scale since the COVID-19 pandemic. Behind this is the market’s re-pricing of Fed policies. Trump has also been making statements, considering suing and dismissing Powell, with the new Fed chair expected to be announced in January. These policy uncertainties are directly impacting the crypto market.

On-chain data is quite interesting. The queue length for Ethereum validators has reached nearly twice the size of the exit queue, hitting a six-month high, indicating continued optimism about Ethereum staking yields; on-chain stock market value has broken $1.2 billion, with particularly noticeable growth in September and December. Additionally, Bitcoin long-term holders have stopped distributing for the first time since July 2025, which could serve as a trigger for a rebound.

Interestingly, Manus, founded by Xiao Hong, who was acquired by Meta, is a seasoned Bitcoin holder. This indirectly reflects an increasing recognition of crypto assets by major tech companies.

Market opinions are clearly divided. Some believe the "Trump rally" couldn't withstand the decline in crypto assets, erasing this year's gains; others point out that macro and regulatory events in early 2026 could be key catalysts; investment banks warn of a potential "crypto winter" in 2026, but institutional deployment and on-chain ecosystem transformation continue unabated.

It’s worth noting that the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting at 3 a.m. tomorrow, which will provide guidance on the market’s future direction. Additionally, GoPlus’s annual security report shows 1,200 serious security incidents, indicating ongoing risk control pressures.