Focusing on this 1-hour candlestick, I’ve come to a conclusion: a short-term trend reversal is very likely imminent.

In my opinion, BTC’s recent performance is quite interesting. After surging to 90368, it was immediately pushed down by the upper Bollinger Band (which was around 89800 at the time). Now it has fallen back to 87269, breaking below the middle Bollinger Band (87415). Don’t underestimate this — on the 1-hour timeframe, the middle band is the dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment. If it can’t hold steady, it means buying momentum is waning.

Let’s look at some key signals:

**Technical analysis**: The MACD’s DIFF and DEA are still high, but the histogram (MACD:30.5) is clearly shrinking, which is a classic sign of momentum divergence. The price makes a new high, but the momentum doesn’t keep up — often a precursor to a pullback. Plus, the Bollinger Bands are tightening, and the price is testing the lower band (86931) for support — if this level doesn’t hold, the next strong support is around 85693.

**On-chain data**: The large whale addresses I’m watching have shown significant profit-taking transfers above 90300, indicating on-chain activity is cooling down. Exchange net inflows have slightly increased, suggesting some chips are shifting toward selling pressure. The signals are very clear.

**Sentiment and fundamentals**: Macro factors haven’t changed much, but ETF capital has slowed its net inflow for two consecutive days, and FOMO sentiment in the market at this level has noticeably diminished. Without new narratives driving the market, a technical correction is healthy and necessary.

My straightforward judgment: the short-term trend has shifted to sideways with a bearish bias.

The key now is whether the 86900-85600 range can hold. If the price stabilizes with reduced volume near the lower band, that’s a good short-term buying opportunity. But if it breaks below 85600 with increased volume, the correction could be larger. The market always rewards patience, but this time I won’t blindly chase shorts or buy the dip — I’m waiting for the structure to develop naturally. The system signals tell me that the current risk outweighs the opportunity, so it’s time to hold back.

Remember: true strength is when support is firmly established before taking off. Critical levels will alert you in real-time — stay focused and wait for the wind to come.