2025-12-30 10:26:29

I recently reviewed Grayscale's published research report, which contains many thought-provoking insights. Here's a brief summary of the core logic.

**A New Outlet for the Global Asset Shortage**

The report points out that government debt levels have reached a critical point, and traditional fiat currencies are under devaluation pressure. This is not a new idea, but Grayscale clearly explains its connection to the crypto market—global liquidity will inevitably seek new value carriers. Crypto assets are becoming one of the options for institutional allocation. This means there could be a wave of large capital inflows next, but the question is, can retail investors catch up when this wave arrives?

**The Maturing Regulatory Framework as a Double-Edged Sword**

If the relevant legislation truly passes in early 2026, traditional Wall Street financial institutions will enter the market in a more regulated manner. This sounds like good news, but from another perspective—retail investors' original informational advantage will be instantly eroded. Institutional-level risk control, research teams, and capital scale are on a completely different level. The window for retail investors to explore might really be less than a year now.

**Traditional Cycle Theory May Become Invalid**

Relying solely on four-year cycles for investment decisions is no longer sufficient. Future markets will be driven more by macroeconomic changes and policy factors. Relying purely on news and intuition to trade cryptocurrencies will become increasingly risky.

**Where Is the Exit for Retail Investors?**

The implicit advice in the report is actually quite simple:

First, significantly improve your research ability and cognitive level; otherwise, cognitive gaps will directly transfer wealth.

Second, stay away from projects without real value support. Those still chasing overnight wealth stories now face very high risks.

Third, manage your capital allocation well. Invest most of your funds only in assets you truly understand, and use a small portion for trial and error and learning.

The remaining time in 2025 may truly be the last chance for a retake. Improving your understanding and seeing through the logic behind the market will determine how much you can earn in the coming years.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

9 Likes

Reward
9
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

SnapshotLaborer

· 6h ago

The window period is gone, it's time to start thinking. --- It's true that the market has heated up; how can retail investors compete with institutions? --- The four-year cycle should have been discarded long ago; now it's all about policy + macroeconomic games. --- It sounds nice, but actually it's just advising us not to gamble recklessly. --- Poor cognition = wealth gap, that hits home. --- Can we still buy the dip before 2026? I doubt it. --- Only when you truly understand can you dare to bet; everything else is just gambling. --- Institutions enter while retail investors exit; no one can escape this cycle. --- If you're still chasing stories of instant wealth, just wait to get cut.

View OriginalReply0

CoffeeOnChain

· 6h ago

The window period is really less than a year now. Those still gambling need to wake up.

View OriginalReply0

FalseProfitProphet

· 6h ago

The window period is less than a year, and those still chasing the hype should really wake up. Institutional entry is a double-edged sword; retail investors' good days are indeed coming to an end. That's right, the four-year cycle theory should be discarded; relying solely on intuition to trade cryptocurrencies will only lead to liquidation. The idea of large capital entering sounds appealing, but how many can actually catch it? A lack of understanding is just wealth transfer—this hits hard. For those still dreaming of getting rich overnight, it looks like they will be the ones taking the losses next. Once regulation is implemented, Wall Street will take off; retail investors' informational advantage will disappear instantly, which is a bit despairing. Regarding capital allocation, you're right—if you don't understand, don't move; small mistakes are part of the learning process. By 2026, those still exploring are already late; this window period is truly valuable. Liquidity needs to find a new home; how much crypto can actually absorb remains an issue.

View OriginalReply0

GasWaster69

· 6h ago

Is the window period really less than a year? Then I need to rush and catch up haha --- Honestly, the institutional entry has been on the table for a long time, retail investors are still dreaming about something --- It's the old routine of "enhancing cognition," sounding nice but basically just advising people not to mess around --- I'm tired of hearing that the four-year cycle is invalid, but it seems no one has been able to predict it correctly in recent years --- That part about capital allocation hit me hard; my small trial-and-error investments have already turned into most of my losses --- Grayscale's report is just saying that once institutions come in, retail investors won't be able to handle it. How desperate do you want to be? --- Landing in early 2026? It's about time to start bottom fishing, everyone --- "Chasing overnight riches is risky," but if not chasing, how else to make quick money? That logic doesn't hold up well --- The information advantage is really gone now; retail investors being beaten is inevitable --- The final retake exam period, I feel like it's the last harvest period

View OriginalReply0

LayerZeroHero

· 6h ago

To be honest, judging that the window period is less than a year is a bit harsh... but after thinking about it carefully, it seems to be the case.

View OriginalReply0