Recently, Bitcoin has been making waves again. On the last day of the year, the price surged to $90,000, and the market was once excited. However, it quickly fell back below $88,000. This rapid rise followed by a sharp decline is not complicated — weak performance of Nasdaq futures, coupled with the repeated failure of peace expectations in geopolitical situations, resulted in a double blow that instantly shattered bullish confidence.

What’s more painful is that many traders had bet on a rebound at the start of the new year, only to be caught off guard by leveraged liquidations. On-chain data also speaks: open interest has noticeably declined, indicating that cautious sentiment is spreading in the market.

This series of ups and downs actually reflects how fragile the current market state is. Although there is indeed positive news from regulations, in the short term, macro factors still dominate — economic data, geopolitical risks, liquidity — these major variables have a much greater impact on the price than policy favorable news.