The recently released Federal Reserve December meeting minutes reveal many noteworthy signals. This year, the US real GDP growth has been relatively moderate, the labor market is gradually cooling, and wage increases are roughly in line with last year—these data all point to a relatively stable but not overheating economy.

Although economic activity in the third quarter was still fairly steady, the average growth rate for the first three quarters of the year was below early-year expectations. The impact of the government shutdown is also brewing and may temporarily drag down GDP performance.

Looking ahead to 2025, staff forecasts are relatively optimistic. As financial conditions improve and tariff shocks are gradually digested, economic growth is expected to slightly exceed the potential growth rate, with the unemployment rate gradually rising. However, inflation still faces some short-term pressures, and it is expected to stabilize back to the 2% target only by 2028.

What is the consensus among meeting participants? The risk of inflation remains tilted upward and requires high vigilance; on the other hand, the risk in the labor market is actually tilted downward. This pattern has profound implications for the liquidity environment of the capital markets.