2025-12-30 21:20:37

The crypto world has been a bit restless this week. Two major events at the Federal Reserve are about to unfold: the release of the December 30 meeting minutes and the confirmation of a new chair in the first week of January—these two variables directly impact whether Bitcoin can create a miracle in 2026.

First, let's talk about the race for the new chair. Former Fed Governor Waller is currently the hottest candidate, with a nomination probability soaring to 47%, closely followed by White House economic advisor Hassett. Their views are quite different: Waller advocates for a "balance sheet reduction + rate cuts" combo, breaking conventional norms; Hassett is a more aggressive dovish candidate, fully focused on cutting rates. Behind this is actually Trump's demand for "less than 1% rate cuts"—to lower the cost of government debt financing, he has explicitly stated that the new chair should seek his opinion before making major decisions. This directly hits the Fed's independence, making the situation quite tense.

The December 30 meeting minutes are even more critical. The Fed has already cut rates by 25 basis points, but the dot plot suggests there might be only one rate cut by 2026. Meanwhile, the November CPI unexpectedly fell to 2.7%, reigniting market expectations for easing. If the minutes signal more rate cuts, risk assets like Bitcoin will benefit; conversely, if the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, the crypto market could repeat the previous "dive after rate cuts" disaster—history shows that after a rate cut, Bitcoin once plunged by 1.23% in a short period, causing over 130,000 traders to get liquidated.

For crypto investors, the policy stance of the new chair is a matter of life and death. A dovish, easing cycle would continuously inject liquidity into the market; but if the new chair insists on Fed independence and delays rate cuts again, the crypto space should prepare for new volatility.

Do you think Waller will ultimately win? If a 1% rate cut actually happens, can Bitcoin smoothly break through the 120,000 mark? Feel free to make your prediction in the comments. Let's wait and see the Fed's "final answer" this week.

BTC1,09%

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WhaleWatcher

· 10h ago

If Woosh moves up, liquidity will explode. At that time, it won't just be Bitcoin; the entire crypto space will take off.

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AirdropHunterXM

· 14h ago

Wosh, that 47% probability feels a bit uncertain, Trump's methods... The independence of the Federal Reserve is indeed about to be overridden. The key is still the December 30th minutes. If CPI drops to 2.7% and truly signals a dovish stance, we must prevent a repeat of the 130,000 liquidation tragedy—it’s too frightening. But on the other hand, a 1% rate cut is simply impossible to implement, it's too absurd... Bitcoin hitting 120,000 is even earlier. Can we not do so much psychological preparation and just tell me who wins this week? The recent plunge was really incredible; now we need to be more cautious.

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MEVHunterX

· 15h ago

Wosh can't win, Trump will definitely choose Hassett, rate cuts are coming for sure Rate cuts are useless now, Bitcoin has topped out If the minutes continue to be hawkish, I'll just liquidate everything, I can't afford to gamble 120,000? Laughing, let's first hold onto 100,000 I was also in during the 130,000 liquidation, this time is even harder The Federal Reserve's independence is gone, it's just a joke The real variable is whether Trump can really intervene, otherwise it's all talk Rate cuts and dovish policies will indeed boost liquidity once they come to power, but how long it can last is uncertain If Wosh really takes office and cuts rates and shrinks the balance sheet together, the crypto world will see a wave of deaths This week we'll see the minutes, everything else is just empty talk

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OnchainFortuneTeller

· 15h ago

If Wosh really takes the stage, a combination of balance sheet reduction and rate cuts would be truly impressive. The Federal Reserve's independence issue is just a pretext; the real reason is that Trump wants to spend money, and Bitcoin is following suit. The likelihood of rate cut signals materializing depends on whether this week's minutes dare to loosen the tone. I remember the time when 130,000 traders got liquidated; during those bloodbaths, it's often the best opportunity to get in. I give a 30% chance of a 1% rate cut, but the crypto world doesn't believe that—it's all about speculating on expectations. 120,000 is a small figure for me; the question is whether it can be maintained. If I had to choose, I'd still bet on Wosh. A dovish stance rising to power can sustain the liquidity, which is the real life-saving medicine for the crypto market. Being aggressive is more profitable than conservative, especially at a market turning point. The minutes day is the true "bullish" moment; everything else is noise. I bet there will be a jump on the evening of the 29th; big players won't be so obedient.

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