The yield on the 10-year US Treasury has recently experienced a significant decline. On the surface, it appears to be just data fluctuation, but in reality, this has become a signal for market participants to pre-position for the 2026 interest rate trend. Large funds are laying the groundwork for expectations of future easing policies, and this game is far more complex than it seems.

History often repeats itself in similar ways, only with increasingly covert tactics. Major players attract retail investors by depicting a promising outlook for rate cuts in 2026, aiming to have them hand over their chips in the present. Once FOMO sentiment fully accumulates, a reverse shakeout play will unfold. Do you remember the situation after the Federal Reserve announced a pause in rate hikes at the beginning of 2023? BTC once surged rapidly but then entered sideways trading, with countless retail investors forced to cut losses at low levels—stories like these have been repeated too many times in the crypto world.

To survive better in this cycle, it’s important to keep in mind a few points: First, learn to observe the true flow of on-chain funds rather than just focusing on news headlines; second, strictly manage your positions and never put all your chips in one direction; third, keep sufficient cash reserves to prepare for potential bottom-fishing opportunities. Remember, news in the crypto space is always just part of the story; only by penetrating the surface can you see the true intentions of the major players.