Recently, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January has dropped to around 16%, and the market generally believes that the likelihood of further rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 is low. At first glance, such a weak rate cut expectation seems unfavorable for the market, but on the other hand, it reinforces a more noteworthy mid-term logic — after the new chairman takes office in the second half of the year, market expectations for a new round of rate cuts are quietly accumulating.

There is also a key detail. Although the market has been volatile recently, the critical support level at 84,500 has never been effectively broken. Now, it is precisely at a sensitive time point of monthly and yearly candle closes, making it hard for even long-term bears to imagine the market directly breaking through this structure downward. A more realistic scenario is: the market needs an upward move to fulfill the requirements of the closing and the structure.

Considering all these factors, I remain cautiously bullish on Bitcoin in the short to medium term, but the key depends on whether this price structure can hold steady.

The recent clear support level is around 86,800. As long as this level is not effectively broken downward, the market is ready to launch an upward wave at any time.

However, it must be clarified that this is not a binary scenario of either/or, but a structure where both possibilities coexist. One scenario is a sustained oscillation above 86,800, gradually raising the center of gravity, ultimately triggering an upward trend. The other, also quite possible, is that amid the "weakened rate cut expectations" sentiment disturbance, the market first dips down to absorb the liquidity from 86,300 to 85,500, completing a shakeout before choosing to move upward.

Therefore, I still lean towards a bullish outlook on the direction, but the process may require some patience.