According to the latest released Federal Reserve meeting minutes, staff economic outlook has been updated with some interesting insights. Compared to the October forecast, they now believe that by 2028, real GDP growth will accelerate slightly, mainly because financial market conditions are expected to provide stronger support, coupled with rising expectations for potential output growth.

The key takeaway is—after 2025, as the negative impact of high tariffs gradually dissipates, fiscal policy and financial market conditions will continue to underpin spending, and GDP growth is expected to outpace potential growth rates until 2028. What does this mean? The unemployment rate will gradually decline, and is expected to approach the natural unemployment rate by 2027.

Regarding inflation, staff forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are somewhat more optimistic than in October, but their views on the following two years (2027-2028) remain largely unchanged. The overall logic is clear: a moderate and improving economy, with a continued accommodative liquidity environment, implicitly reflecting expectations of sustained market liquidity support. For capital markets, this is undoubtedly a positive signal.