As of Beijing time early morning, Ethereum is quoted at approximately $2,955, with a 24-hour decline of only 0.4%, repeatedly oscillating within a narrow range of $2,918-$2,983. Market capitalization remains around $356 billion, but trading volume has significantly shrunk—mainly due to liquidity drying up during the New Year holiday. In this low-activity environment, any large orders are prone to trigger price fluctuations.

## Core Judgment

Likely to continue consolidating within the $2,900-$2,990 range. $2,910 has become the current key support level; a break below could trigger a chain of stop-losses. On the upside, $2,970-$2,990 forms short-term resistance, and breaking through here requires increased volume and new capital inflow signals. Market sentiment is cautious, with the Fear and Greed Index at only 23, indicating extreme fear. Market funds are moving towards traditional safe-haven assets, and Ethereum's narrative is temporarily less attractive.

## Capital and On-Chain Performance

ETF trends are neutral—Fidelity FETH shows slight net inflow, but Grayscale ETHE is simultaneously net outflowing, indicating no clear capital preference. On-chain activity and staking data remain stable, suggesting no signs of panic selling by large holders. Interestingly, there is some buying support around the $2,900 level, helping to keep the bottom relatively stable.

## Technical Details

The RSI hovers between 42-48, indicating a neutral to slightly weak state, with no overbought or oversold signals. The bearish momentum on the MACD is gradually weakening, possibly hinting at an easing of the downtrend. The 20-day moving average is around $2,975, and the Bollinger Bands have significantly narrowed, clearly indicating a consolidation phase—markets are waiting for a breakout to determine direction.

## Trading Strategy

**Bullish Scenario**: If volume increases to break through the $2,990 threshold, it could test $3,020-$3,050, with an optimistic target of reaching $3,100. However, this requires ETF capital inflows to support the move, along with volume confirmation; otherwise, the breakout may be reversed.

**Bearish Risks**: If support at $2,910 is lost, the price may decline to the $2,860-$2,880 zone. In extreme cases, liquidity shocks could push the price down near $2,800. Liquidity is already tight during the holiday period, so downward risks should not be underestimated.

## Trading Recommendations

Short-term traders can consider light long positions between $2,910-$2,920, with a stop-loss set at $2,890. If resistance at $2,970-$2,990 is encountered, reduce positions accordingly—avoid holding through the breakout without confirmation, and wait for volume to confirm the move before chasing.

For medium-term strategies, monitor whether ETF capital shows signs of inflow, whether staking volume continues to grow, and whether Layer 2 network activity picks up. Until clear breakout signals appear, it’s advisable to stay on the sidelines or adopt small high-and-low strategies to manage risk while capturing potential rebounds.