Today’s situation ultimately boils down to big funds using time to exchange for chips.

Many people are fixated on judging the direction, but actually they’ve got the focus reversed. The truly influential funds are not in a hurry to decide the direction; they care about one thing — how many stop-loss orders retail traders still have left.

From a structural perspective, the range between 2900 and 3050 is still there, and the trend has not yet completed. But that’s a detail — the range itself doesn’t mean you can chase arbitrarily.

The most likely scenario at this price level is not a straight move up or down, but a sudden spike. What’s the purpose? In one sentence, to absorb liquidity and wash out those wavering or stubborn orders.

So if you’re going to act today, the core isn’t to guess whether it’s going up or down, but to wait for market sentiment to explode first. Don’t chase the false signals of a breakout above; don’t follow the panic below. The truly comfortable position is the “injection” that doesn’t come back after the spike.

If it just dips slightly and then is pulled back, what does that indicate? The chips are basically cleaned out; the bulls don’t want to release cheap chips anymore. But if it breaks through 2850 with high volume, then it’s one word — wait. Wait until the selling is finished, the panic subsides, and trading volume collapses. That’s when the feeling of getting in is truly comfortable.

If the range breaks and it continues to rise, that’s not a rebound — that’s a real change in rhythm. Today, don’t follow the trend to react quickly; it’s too easy to get caught.