As of the morning of December 31, 2025, Ethereum is priced at $2,972, with a daily increase of 0.5% and a 24-hour volatility of about 3.0%. The market fear index is only 29. Trading activity toward the end of the year remains light, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between $2,900 and $3,000, with little chance of a decisive breakout.

**What is the market situation?**

On the price front, the $3,000-$3,050 range has become a tough nut to crack, with multiple attempts failing. Support below is around $2,870-$2,900, and further down is the $2,800-$2,850 zone. 24-hour trading volume has shrunk significantly by 35%, and poor liquidity means quick fluctuations can easily scare traders, but on the flip side, no strong trend has formed.

On-chain data is quite interesting—spot ETF net outflows in Q4 totaled $530 million, indicating that institutional investors remain cautious. The good news is that there are many accumulation orders around $2,900 supporting the price, but although funds are flowing into Layer2 ecosystems, this has not translated into real buying on the mainnet. Technicals are average; the daily chart shows a bearish arrangement, RSI hovers between 45-48 (neutral), and MACD is only slightly bullish with no clear signals.

**What is supporting, and what is suppressing?**

On the positive side, the Federal Reserve has about a 65% chance of cutting interest rates from January to March, which is a bullish signal for the crypto market. There is also expectation of funds returning to spot ETFs, and US crypto regulation bills are progressing—though the specifics are unclear, at least it’s a certainty event. Layer2 ecosystem expansion is active, with staking volumes steadily rising.

On the downside, main concerns include: sudden tightening of regulations, liquidity drying up unexpectedly, leverage liquidation risks, and if Bitcoin weakens, it will directly drag Ethereum down, as the two are highly correlated.

**What’s the outlook?**

In the short term, the next 1-2 weeks, expect Ethereum to fluctuate between $2,900 and $3,000. As long as it holds above $3,050 with sufficient volume, it could attempt to reach $3,100-$3,150. Conversely, if it breaks below $2,870, be prepared to test the $2,800-$2,850 zone.

Looking at 1-3 months, if spot ETF funds return and regulation measures are implemented, a target of $3,200-$3,300 is possible. But if rate cuts fall through or regulation suddenly tightens, watch out for the possibility of dropping to $2,700-$2,750.

**How to operate?**

For short-term traders aiming for swings, consider buying low and selling high within the $2,900-$3,000 range, with stop-losses set at 3-5%. Avoid chasing highs. Medium-term investors can enter gradually; if the price falls below $2,850, cut positions quickly, and add back once it stabilizes above $3,050 with volume. Long-term holders should exercise restraint, keeping positions below 10% of total assets, and only deploy funds during deep corrections. Treat short-term volatility as if it doesn’t exist.