Global Potash Supply Landscape: Who Are the Biggest Potash Producers in 2024?

The potash market is entering a critical inflection point. While fertilizer prices remain volatile heading into 2025, the structural story is shifting—production dynamics are fundamentally reshaping how the world’s biggest potash producers compete and compete for market share.

The Rebalancing Act: Why Production Numbers Matter Now

Global potash consumption climbed to 38.8 million metric tons in 2024, with projections hitting 40.9 million MT in 2025. Yet here’s the tension: world production capacity stood at 65.2 million MT in 2024, with expectations to surge to 76 million MT by 2028. The gap between supply and demand is tightening fast.

The US Geological Survey reports that annual global potash production reached 48 million metric tons in 2024. That figure masks a more interesting reality—the geographic concentration of production is fracturing. Export restrictions from major players and geopolitical friction are forcing the market to recalibrate where potash actually comes from.

The Big Three Dominate—But Not for Long

Canada leads the charge with 15 million metric tons of production in 2024, up more than 11 percent year-over-year. Saskatchewan remains the epicenter, and the country snagged 79 percent of US potash imports. Nutrien, the world’s largest potash company valued at over C$35 billion, anchors production alongside Mosaic’s mammoth Esterhazy K3 operation—capable of churning out nearly 8 million MT annually. BHP’s Jansen project promises to double capacity by decade’s end.

Russia and Belarus combined represent roughly 16 million MT of production. Russia stayed flat at 9 million MT, hampered by export restrictions. Belarus, however, posted a jaw-dropping 56 percent production jump to 7 million MT—the largest increase among all major producers. The comeback story is real, though exports remain constrained by port access issues and rely heavily on Russian logistics routes to reach Asian buyers.

The Middle Tier: Asia’s Growing Footprint

China’s 6.3 million MT output continues its steady climb, yet the country consumes roughly 20 percent of global potash supply. That hunger gap means China remains structurally dependent on imports, particularly for muriate of potash (MOP).

Germany, Israel, and Jordan collectively contribute roughly 7.2 million MT. Israel’s recovery operations from the Dead Sea produced 2.4 million MT, while Jordan added 1.8 million MT. Both countries benefit from a geopolitical advantage—they’re geographically insulated from the sanctions dynamics plaguing Eastern European suppliers.

The Wildcards: Southeast Asia’s Expansion Play

Laos represents the most intriguing growth story. With only 1.5 million MT in 2024, the Southeast Asian nation sits atop the world’s second-largest potash reserves (1 billion MT) after Canada. Lao Kaiyuan’s third MOP unit, expected online by end-2025, will double the company’s capacity. This positions Laos as a critical supply valve for Asian markets over the next five years.

The Tail End: Scale Matters Less Than Positioning

Chile (750,000 MT) and the United States (420,000 MT) round out the top ten, though both punch above their weight in specific markets. Chile’s SQM juggles potash and lithium production, while US output—concentrated in New Mexico and Utah—skews heavily toward sulfate variants rather than MOP.

The Structural Shift Ahead

World potash reserves exceed 4.8 billion MT of potassium oxide equivalent. But reserves tell only half the story. New MOP mine capacity expected in Belarus, Brazil, Canada, Ethiopia, Morocco, and Spain by 2028 signals a deliberate geographic rebalancing. The message is clear: the world’s biggest potash producers are preparing for a supply chain divorce from current geopolitical friction points.

For investors monitoring potash equities, 2025 becomes the pivotal year—production ramp-ups, pricing stabilization, and the race to lock in offtake agreements will determine which players capture value in this reshuffled landscape.