Oil markets kicked off 2026 on steady ground while traders circled the January 4th OPEC+ summit. The big question: will the cartel pump the brakes on supply increases or keep the pedal down? Meanwhile, fresh U.S. sanctions targeting Venezuela-connected entities are weighing on crude prices. On top of that, the IEA just dropped a forecast predicting a record oil surplus this year—which is basically throwing another anchor on the market. So you've got this tug-of-war happening: geopolitical tensions trying to push prices up, but supply gluts and sanctions pushing them down. Not exactly the rocket fuel traders were hoping for at the year's start.