#PUMP As of 12:00 on January 2, 2026 (UTC+8), the PUMP short-term rebound window is 1-3 trading days, with a medium-term mainly characterized by oscillation and a long-term outlook dependent on platform fundamentals and sentiment recovery in the Memecoin sector; core conclusion: no strong reversal drivers, after the rebound, it returns to weakness.

1. Short-term trend (1-7 days)

- Baseline scenario (probability 60%): Rebound to $0.002200 resistance encounters resistance, and within 1-3 days, it falls back to the $0.001909-$0.0020 range for oscillation, triggering an alert to turn bearish.
- Optimistic scenario (probability 20%): Volume breakthrough of $0.002200 with no large on-chain sell-offs, the rebound continues for up to 5 trading days, reaching $0.0023-$0.0024.
- Pessimistic scenario (probability 20%): Break below $0.001909 support with high volume, rapidly declining within 24 hours to $0.0017-$0.0018.
- Key thresholds: support at $0.001909, resistance at $0.002200; RSI >80 divergence, MACD death cross, large net outflows signal a shift to bearish.

2. Medium-term trend (1-3 months)

- Core judgment: No strong fundamentals/funding-driven movement, mainly oscillating within the range of $0.0016-$0.0021.
- Risk points: About 40% of unlocked tokens may cause sustained selling pressure; platform revenue decline, cautious sentiment in Memecoin sector; correlation with BTC around 0.78, a weak market will amplify declines.
- Positive triggers: platform revenue recovery, increased buybacks, sector sentiment warming, possibly rebounding to $0.0023-$0.0025, but unlikely to break previous highs.

3. Long-term trend (6-12 months)

- Neutral expectation: In the absence of major positive/negative news, price oscillates in the $0.0015-$0.0020 range, unlikely to revisit historical ATH ($0.0090+).
- Optimistic expectation (low probability): Platform ecosystem expansion, normalized buybacks, sector supercycle, possibly reaching $0.0030-$0.0040.
- Pessimistic expectation: Concentrated unlocking sell pressure, regulatory/security negatives, revenue collapse, possibly dropping to $0.0010-$0.0012.

4. Key triggers and operational checklist

| Timeframe | Trigger Signal | Action | Risk Control Points |
|--------------|------------------|---------|---------------------|
| Short-term (1-3 days) | Rebound to $0.002200 encounters resistance/breaks $0.001909 | Partial profit-taking/short entry | Light position, leverage ≤3x, stop-loss at $0.002250 |
| Medium-term (1-3 months) | Unlocking sell pressure/revenue decline | Reduce holdings on rallies, mainly short positions | Partial position building, stop-loss at $0.002300 |
| Long-term (6-12 months) | Platform positive news/sector recovery | Small long positions for testing | Stop-loss at $0.001500, avoid chasing highs |

5. Conclusion

The short-term rebound window is very brief, the probability of medium-term oscillation downward is high, and long-term upward trend is unlikely; it is recommended to take partial profits during rebounds, wait for clear bearish signals to short, and only take small long positions during strong positive news in the long run.