2026-01-02 07:21:52

Next January 2nd, the US Manufacturing PMI Final will be released. This data from S&P Global has traditionally been regarded by the market as a leading indicator of industry health, with the release scheduled for 22:45 on January 2, 2026.

What is the market consensus? Most analysts expect it to remain at 51.8, above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, indicating continued growth. At first glance, there seems to be no suspense, but the story behind this data is actually quite complex.

S&P Global conducts regular surveys of about 600 manufacturers, aggregating their perceptions on five aspects: new orders (the most weighted at 30%), output, employment, supplier delivery speeds, and inventory levels. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. Once released, this data is final and not subject to revision, making it highly timely and valuable for reference.

Currently, the situation of US manufacturing is quite complicated. There are significant regional differences—although the Chicago PMI for December has rebounded, at 43.5 it still hovers in contraction territory, indicating that manufacturing in the Midwest remains sluggish. In contrast, Philadelphia’s new orders and shipments have rebounded into positive territory, with the employment index reaching its highest since May, showing regional resilience.

Looking ahead, US manufacturing has been contracting for nine consecutive months since March 2025. The main culprits include tariffs raising costs, global trade frictions suppressing imports and exports, and most sectors lagging except for a few bright spots like chips and civil aviation. Although the AI boom has pushed capital expenditure among the Big Four tech companies to an annual growth rate of 23%, these structural highlights are too small to significantly boost the overall manufacturing sector.

Therefore, the key question is: can the December PMI hold above 51.8? This directly reflects whether US manufacturing still has the capacity to continue its recovery amid the dual pressures of tariffs and structural divergence. Its impact on market sentiment should not be underestimated.

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PanicSeller

· 4h ago

51.8 can't hold, the Midwest and Central regions are both falling apart. What can chips and aerospace save...

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StableBoi

· 4h ago

51.8 holding steady is already pretty good; the market consensus is too optimistic now. --- Chicago at 43.5, this data really can't hold up; the Midwest has completely laid flat. --- Tariffs are really cutting deep; the manufacturing sector is basically being chopped like chives. --- Philadelphia's data isn't bad; why isn't the whole country like this? Regional disparities are so severe. --- Structural highlights are too minor to make a difference; no matter how hot AI gets, it can't lift the entire market. --- I bet PMI will drop below 50; this time, it won't hold. --- Since March, we've been contracting for 9 months; how big of a rebound is needed to make up for it? --- The promised recovery looks ridiculous once you see the data; why are regional gaps so big? --- Tariffs, trade frictions, structural divergence—American manufacturing really hasn't had a good day. --- Waiting for January 2nd to see the real deal; right now, it's all just on paper.

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New_Ser_Ngmi

· 4h ago

Chicago 43.5 is still struggling, while Philadelphia is holding up. With such a severe divergence, can they really get by with 51.8?

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FUD_Whisperer

· 4h ago

How severe has the decline in U.S. manufacturing been over the past 9 months? Tariffs + trade wars have directly broken the defense, and no matter how hot the AI concept is, it can't lift the overall market...

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gas_guzzler

· 4h ago

51.8 is hard to hold, the tariff cut was too harsh.

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Anon32942

· 4h ago

This wave of tariffs has really killed the manufacturing industry. Still want to defend 51.8? I think it's doubtful. Chicago is already at 43.5, and the Midwest is still lying flat. Why should the whole country be able to withstand it? PMI, to put it simply, depends on new orders. Without new orders, everything else is pointless. Who still dares to place orders now? Expecting AI to save the market after nine months of decline? Tech companies' capital expenditures are just superficial. We'll see the outcome on January 2nd next year. I bet it will break below 50. The current situation of U.S. manufacturing, instead of watching PMI, it's better to watch whether Trump's tariff policies loosen or not. Philadelphia data looks good, but that's just an illusion. Such severe regional divergence indicates an overall vertical decline. If this PMI truly holds at 51.8, then the market consensus should be updated.

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