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Key Highlights
Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin fluctuates around the $90,000 mark, Ethereum returns to $3,000.
Major Positive News: Institutions believe Bitcoin could see a strong rebound in 2026; US spot crypto ETFs have surpassed $2 trillion in total trading volume.
Core Contradiction: Market volatility intensifies, with over 110,000 liquidations in 24 hours; Standard Chartered significantly downgrades long-term Bitcoin price forecasts.
Macro Focus: Latest Federal Reserve officials' statements lean "hawkish," indicating rate cuts require caution; geopolitical events (US airstrike on Venezuela) have not shaken Bitcoin prices.
Next Week Preview: The US will release December ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, along with the highly anticipated December Non-Farm Payrolls report, setting the tone for the Fed's first rate decision in 2026.
Key Market Data and Developments
Funds and Trading Volume: US crypto spot ETFs have surpassed $2 trillion in total trading volume as of January 2. Bitcoin attracted over $1.2 trillion in fiat inflows last year.
Market Risks: Market volatility has increased in recent days, with over 110,000 liquidations across the entire market in the past 24 hours.
Macro Analysis Summary
1. Divergence of Institutional Views
Bullish: Some institutions believe that Fed rate cuts and policies under Trump could drive Bitcoin to new highs in 2026.
Bearish Adjustment: Standard Chartered has significantly downgraded its long-term forecast, lowering the 2026 target price from $300,000 to $150,000.
Traditional Market Signals: The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.19%, reflecting a more optimistic economic sentiment.
2. Fed Policy Divergence
Some officials believe more time is needed to evaluate data, and rate cuts may be delayed until late 2026.
Some warn that the labor market could weaken, and if unemployment rises to 6%, the Fed may need to accelerate rate cuts.
Market opinions on the timing of rate cuts remain divided, with forecasts generally centered between March and September, with phased reductions.
3. Geopolitics and Market Resilience
US military actions against Venezuela and other events have not caused significant Bitcoin declines, indicating some safe-haven attributes, and the market has shown signs of stability.