Further Speculation on Short-Term Bitcoin Trends

Bitcoin has already broken through the mid-term supply line, significantly increasing the likelihood of Scenario 1 occurring, which is that Bitcoin may first rebound to the annual line, completing the fourth sub-wave of Wave A, then proceed with the fifth sub-wave downward, completing Wave A.

However, this scenario still requires confirmation of a rebound from MSTR's oversold rally. If MSTR confirms a rebound in the next few trading days, then Bitcoin is likely to rebound to the annual line within this month; conversely, if MSTR continues to decline, Bitcoin is more likely to follow with sideways downward movement.

Currently, MSTR has shown oversold signals such as daily RSI divergence at the bottom, making a rebound more probable.

If MSTR confirms a rebound, then after MSCI makes a definitive decision on January 15, the market will have two possible directions:

If MSCI decides to exclude MSTR as market expectations suggest, MSTR will end its rebound with a sharp decline, and Bitcoin will also end its rebound and fall, completing the last drop of Wave A. This scenario has a higher probability;

If MSCI unexpectedly decides not to exclude MSTR, MSTR is likely to continue rebounding, and Bitcoin will also continue its rebound, potentially breaking through the annual line.

However, MSCI has already announced clear rules, and the probability of changing its decision to not exclude is quite low. Even if MSTR is not excluded, I do not believe Bitcoin will resume a bull run, but the rebound level will be higher. #2026币圈Flag