Federal Reserve January Interest Rate Outlook: 83% Probability of Holding Steady

YieldWhisperer · 2026-01-04T05:36:09+00:00

【Blockchain Rhythm】According to the latest data from CME Federal Reserve Watch Tool, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy direction in January are already quite clear. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 16.6%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates at the current level is as high as 83.4%. This means that the likelihood of the federal funds rate remaining stable in the short term exceeds expectations. For the cryptocurrency market, this policy expectation stability will directly influence institutional capital allocation strategies. Clarification of interest rate expectations often reduces short-term policy uncertainty-induced volatility, providing market participants with clearer decision-making references.

YieldWhisperer

2026-01-04 05:36:09

【区块律动】根据CME美联储观察工具的最新数据显示，市场对美联储1月政策方向的预期已经相当明确。降息25个基点的概率仅为16.6%，而维持利率在当前水平的概率则高达83.4%。这意味着联邦基金利率短期内保持稳定的可能性远超预期。对加密资产市场来说，这种政策预期的稳定性会直接影响机构资金的配置策略。利率预期的明确化往往会减少短期政策不确定性带来的波动，为市场参与者提供更清晰的决策参考。

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MoneyBurner

· 01-07 01:58

83% remains unchanged? So was my timing for building the position correct or wrong... I just can't figure it out.

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NFTArchaeologis

· 01-06 19:13

More about stability than surprises, this probability distribution is actually like authenticating antiques— the clearer the details, the harder it is to manipulate. Institutional funds will continue to allocate as they always do; in plain terms, the issue of interest rates is finally no longer Schrödinger's cat.

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GasBandit

· 01-06 18:26

The Federal Reserve has an 80% chance of holding steady. Now the institutions can sleep well. But stability = boredom, how to trade?

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OldLeekConfession

· 01-04 23:09

Hold steady, hold steady. With an 83% chance of not moving, at least we won't be hit by policy blows in this wave. Institutions should also be able to hold their ground now.

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FUD_Whisperer

· 01-04 06:05

83% chance of remaining unchanged? Now the institutions can finally sleep well, no longer guessing what the Fed is thinking...

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GrayscaleArbitrageur

· 01-04 06:02

A 83.4% probability is a bit too stable; not moving in this wave might actually be the biggest variable.

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MetaverseLandlord

· 01-04 06:02

83.4% remains unchanged... Now the institutions have confidence, and they finally don't have to guess every day.

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FlashLoanLarry

· 01-04 05:51

83.4% hold probability? honestly that's just priced in already, everyone and their grandma saw this coming... real question is whether institutions are front-running the certainty itself lmao. opportunity cost of sitting flat beats the mev chaos of panic selling at this point, ngl

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SerNgmi

· 01-04 05:46

83.4% chance of stability? Are the institutions about to buy the dip again?

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FreeMinter

· 01-04 05:41

83% remains unchanged? Fine, at least no more black swan events are coming, and stability is actually good for the crypto market.

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