2026-01-04 08:01:27

This time the market situation is truly a textbook-level information gap.

On Friday late at night, someone started increasing their position in a leading prediction platform's trading account, when the spread was still fluctuating around 6%. Starting with an initial capital of 32,000 yuan, they ended up earning 400,000 yuan after one day of settlement, with a return rate soaring to 1242%. The pace is really incredible.

In terms of trading volume, transactions clearly picked up after 10 a.m. Eastern Time, and by around 4:20 a.m., it directly hit the peak for the day. The underlying logic is actually the arbitrage of price differences between two mainstream prediction markets.

Kalshi is still trading around 13 cents, but Polymarket has already adjusted the probability expectation for the same event to a completely different level. This kind of misalignment is like the standard arbitrage scenario when information flow is blocked—whoever has the information can exploit the spread between exchanges.

Honestly, this is a true reflection of the current market. Large funds, institutions, and early participants can always capture information faster than ordinary retail investors, then repeatedly jump between platforms to profit. No matter how transparent prediction markets are, the information gap still exists.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

15 Likes

Reward
15
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

GasFeeNightmare

· 01-07 06:08

30,000 yuan a day can reach 400,000, that's really outrageous. The price difference between Kalshi and Polymarket is so obvious, how come no one has noticed... It's both information asymmetry and arbitrage, basically it's still a playground for early players. Retail investors are just here to send money, so exhausting. This move looks cool, but I bet I won't be able to catch the next wave if I bet five bucks. Is Polymarket really that advanced, or are institutions deliberately crashing the market? 1242% return rate, how come I didn't catch this ride? It seems like prediction markets aren't as transparent as people say; it's all insiders profiting from the spread.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidityWitch

· 01-04 09:54

ngl the real alchemy here is watching those price gaps yawn open between platforms... kalshi vs polymarket doing their little two-step while plebs sleep through the whole transmutation. 1242% returns? that's just what happens when the information gods decide to bless someone's LP position lol

Reply0

MetaverseMigrant

· 01-04 08:29

30,000 to 400,000, the price difference is just too brutal The information gap is so real, always the institutions eating the meat and retail investors drinking the soup The gap between Kalshi and Polymarket is truly incredible, anyone would be tempted by this arbitrage opportunity So, even the most transparent markets are just playgrounds for the information aristocrats Another market where you have to stay up all night to catch the bottom; I, this useless person, simply can't keep up

View OriginalReply0

MysteriousZhang

· 01-04 08:18

It's the same old story, information asymmetry is always a playground for big players. 30,000 to 400,000, I really don't have that reaction speed. The arbitrage opportunities on Kalshi and Polymarket are so huge that retail investors can't keep up. Is this what you call market efficiency? Laughable. If I had known it was this way, I wouldn't need to go to work.

View OriginalReply0

NeonCollector

· 01-04 08:03

32,000 to 400,000? This information gap is really brutal. It's always the institutional insiders who are ahead of the game; us retail investors are always a step behind. The price difference between Kalshi and Polymarket has long been monitored by big players. This is the "democracy" of Web3, haha. That 1242% return rate, I'm truly envious.

View OriginalReply0