Bitcoin remains caught between buyers and sellers; technical signals indicate structural weakness

Bitcoin started the week facing significant pressure, retreating to US$ 87,700 after another rejection at the psychological barrier of US$ 90,000. Updated data show the asset quoted at US$ 91.18K with a +1.58% change over 24 hours and a trading volume of US$ 624.85M, reflecting the characteristic volatility of this period. The US$ 90,000 level remains a short-term critical zone, concentrating liquidity and sell orders from recent weeks.

The inability to break this resistance keeps the asset in lateral consolidation, with intense fluctuations but no clear direction. The behavior reflects a notable decoupling from precious metals: while gold and silver hit all-time highs amid macroeconomic uncertainties, Bitcoin does not follow the same capital flow, breaking historical patterns of positive correlation in risk-averse environments.

What technical signals reveal about the next move

From a technical perspective, market signals present a complex setup. On the four-hour chart, the 200-period simple moving average (200SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA) act as dynamic resistance, delimiting the medium-term control zone. As long as the price remains below these levels, lateral continuation or new support tests are more likely scenarios.

However, momentum indicators are beginning to show reversal signs. On the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) marks progressively higher lows while the price forms lower lows—a classic bullish divergence that, in previous cycles, preceded significant movements. The MACD also shows signs of weakening selling pressure.

This divergence extends to the BTC/XAU pair: with gold approaching US$ 4,500 per ounce, Bitcoin accumulates a relative loss of value, suggesting possible technical compression. The recovery of US$ 90,000 with significant volume would be a necessary condition to reestablish a more consistent bullish structure.

Institutions open short positions while liquidity contracts

Recent data indicate that large investors have opened short positions in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana totaling approximately US$ 250 million. The move does not represent an aggressive directional bet but a strategy to hedge against further corrections. However, the impact is amplified in a low-liquidity environment.

The reduction in order book depth increases market sensitivity. Smaller trades cause disproportionate movements, elevating short-term volatility. As the year-end approaches, many traders have reduced exposure to preserve accumulated gains—a seasonal behavior that contributes to a global liquidity contraction and raises the likelihood of abrupt moves.

Miner capitulation marks a point of structural inflection

The Bitcoin network faces a critical period for miners. A VanEck report points to a 4% drop in the hash rate, the steepest since the first half of 2024, concurrent with a 9% monthly price retracement. The 30-day realized volatility exceeded 45%, a level not seen since April 2025.

Greater oscillation combined with a decline in revenue per exahash forces less efficient operators to shut down equipment to avoid operational losses. This capitulation process reduces medium-term structural selling pressure, eliminating marginal agents who need to liquidate assets to cover immediate costs.

Energy geopolitics: the inflection point of global mining

The main catalyst for this decline was the shutdown of about 400,000 machines in Xinjiang, removing approximately 1.3 GW of capacity from the network in just 24 hours. The decision reflects energy reallocation to artificial intelligence data centers, an activity currently offering higher margins than Bitcoin mining. Analysts estimate that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost.

This reorganization concentrates mining in operators with access to cheaper energy and more efficient infrastructure, significantly raising the sector’s entry barrier. For the Bitmain S19 XP model, the breakeven electricity price fell from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in a year—a 36% reduction. Operations that do not keep pace with this compression face increasing risk of economic infeasibility.

Despite difficulties, at least 13 countries are already participating in mining with some level of state support, aiming for energy or monetary sovereignty. This institutional backing may serve as a short-term buffer for remaining operators.

Historical precedents suggest near-term recovery

Historically, drops in the hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During periods of hash rate contraction over 90-day windows, the six-month average return reached 72%, suggesting miner capitulation often coincides with exhaustion of selling pressure.

QCP Capital emphasizes that liquidity will remain low during the Christmas week, potentially amplifying both continuation moves and quick reactions to macroeconomic data. The market now awaits a more consistent influx of buying capital to validate the constructive signals beginning to emerge in technical indicators.