Is BRICS About to Overtake G7? The Economic Shift Nobody's Talking About

The global economy has crossed a $115 trillion milestone according to IMF data, and the distribution of wealth between two major economic blocs tells a remarkable story. Together, the G7 and BRICS+ account for roughly $80 trillion—nearly 70% of all global GDP—yet their trajectories couldn’t be more different.

The Numbers Tell a Dramatic Tale

G7 maintains its lead with $51.45 trillion in combined GDP, while BRICS+ sits at $31.72 trillion. On the surface, the developed world is winning. But dig deeper, and the real story emerges: BRICS nations are expanding at 4.2% annually, more than double the G7’s sluggish 1.7% growth rate. At this pace, the math becomes uncomfortable for Western economies.

Consider the demographic reality: BRICS+ represents 55% of the world’s population—over 4.5 billion people. That’s economic leverage unlike anything in recent history. When billions of people move from agricultural to industrial economies, when urbanization accelerates across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the GDP growth doesn’t just happen by accident. It’s structural.

The United States: Still the Heavyweight Champion

The U.S. economy, valued at $30.34 trillion, remains unmatched globally. It’s almost equivalent to the entire BRICS+ economy combined. With a 2.2% projected growth rate and advantages in technology, financial markets, and the dollar’s reserve currency status, America’s economic dominance isn’t disappearing overnight. The U.S. consumer spending machine and continuous technological innovation keep the engine running, even if at lower speeds than emerging markets.

China’s Quiet Domination Within BRICS

Here’s where it gets interesting: China’s $19.53 trillion GDP constitutes 65% of BRICS+ output. That’s not just dominance—it’s near-monopoly status within the bloc. While China’s growth has moderated to 4.5% in 2025 (down from double-digit expansions of the past), it still dwarfs G7 growth rates. The Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructure investments, and manufacturing exports continue fueling this engine, though at a more sustainable pace than before.

The Dark Side of G7 Stagnation

Europe tells a cautionary tale. Germany ($4.92 trillion, 0.8% growth), France ($3.28 trillion, 1.1% growth), and Italy ($2.46 trillion, 0.8% growth) are barely growing. Japan ($4.39 trillion, 1.1% growth) faces catastrophic demographic collapse with negative population growth. These aren’t short-term hiccups—they’re structural problems: aging workforces, market saturation, and productivity walls that are proving difficult to break through.

India and Indonesia: The Sleeping Dragons Waking Up

Within BRICS+, India’s $4.27 trillion economy is growing at 6.5%—one of the fastest rates globally. Indonesia ($1.49 trillion, 5.1% growth) isn’t far behind. These two nations represent the next frontier of global economic power. With young, expanding populations and rapid industrialization, they’re the growth stories that will define the next decade. Neither has peaked; both are on ascending trajectories.

The Expansion Wildcard

BRICS+ recently welcomed new members: UAE ($568.57 billion), Iran ($463.75 billion), Egypt ($345.87 billion), and Ethiopia ($120.91 billion). Each addition expands the bloc’s geographic reach and resource access. The UAE brings financial sophistication, Egypt controls the Suez Canal, Ethiopia represents emerging African growth. This isn’t just economic expansion—it’s geopolitical repositioning.

When Will BRICS Overtake G7?

If BRICS+ grows at 4.2% and G7 at 1.7%, simple mathematics suggests the crossover could happen within 15-20 years. But that assumes no technological breakthroughs, no policy shifts, and no unforeseen crises. It also assumes BRICS+ maintains unity—a big assumption given tensions between Russia and the West, India-China friction, and Brazil’s volatile politics.

The G7 could accelerate growth through AI, productivity boosts, or immigration reforms that revitalize demographics. Alternatively, BRICS could fracture under internal pressures or face resource constraints that slow expansion.

The Reality Check

The G7 remains the most powerful economic bloc today—advanced tech, financial sophistication, institutional depth, and historical wealth give it staying power. But the historical trend is clear: rising economies always narrow the gap with declining ones. The only questions are timing and whether the transition remains peaceful or becomes confrontational.

The conversation isn’t “Will BRICS surpass G7?” anymore. It’s “When, and what happens next?”