Future Gold Prices 2025-2026: Analyzing the Future of Gold from Multiple Perspectives

Gold prices have crossed the $4,000 per ounce level, and investors holding gold from earlier periods have achieved remarkable returns, while those hesitant due to concerns about a potential correction are watching closely. This article presents the perspectives of leading global financial institutions regarding future price trends.

Current Gold Price Overview: Consecutive New Records

In late last year, gold prices moved dynamically. In October, XAUUSD broke through the psychological resistance at $4,000 per ounce strongly. The historic high was established at $4,181 per ounce.

Since the beginning of the year, gold has risen approximately 66 percent, with the move from $3,000 to $4,000 taking only 7 months. This contrasts with the previous period where it took 14 months to increase from $2,000 to $3,000. This acceleration indicates strong buying momentum and high market confidence.

In Thailand, 96.5% gold bars have also broken through the 62,000 baht per baht mark. Many experts have had to revise their forecasts upward due to the unexpected strength.

Global Financial Institutions’ Forecasts: Raising the Bar

Goldman Sachs: Bullish Outlook

This prestigious institution has significantly raised its price target. Analysts expect XAUUSD to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from the previous estimate of $4,300.

The main drivers include steady demand from central banks worldwide and massive capital inflows into gold ETFs. Analysts also revised the year-end 2027 target higher to $3,300, reflecting stronger-than-expected demand accumulation.

UBS: Central Bank Accumulation

Swiss banks hold a positive outlook on future price trends. According to experts, foreign central banks added over 1,200 tons of gold reserves in a single year, and this trend continues into 2027. Global reserves are at multi-decade highs, approximately 36,699 tons.

Main Reasons Behind Price Increases

Geopolitical Trade Tensions

Trade conflicts have become a primary factor driving investors toward safe-haven assets. Economic uncertainties from tariff hikes and export restrictions lead investors to choose gold as a risk hedge.

Central Bank Monetary Policies

As the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, the dollar weakens accordingly. Gold priced in other currencies becomes more attractive. Lower interest rates significantly reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Diversification Away from the Dollar

Many countries recognize the risks of over-reliance on a single currency, prompting central banks to increase gold holdings as part of diversification strategies.

Development of Digital Currencies in BRICS

Rumors about digital currencies backed by gold, if true, could challenge the dollar’s role in international trade, increasing gold’s importance as an asset.

Risks to Future Prices

Successful Trade Negotiations

If US-China trade tensions ease, gold prices could decline rapidly as uncertainties diminish.

Profit-Taking Pressure

After a sustained rally over several weeks, investors may start selling to lock in profits. This could exert downward pressure, especially if technical indicators show overbought conditions.

US Dollar Strengthening

If the US economy shows unexpected strength and the Fed delays rate cuts, the dollar could appreciate, making gold more expensive for other buyers.

Persistently High Interest Rates

If inflation does not decrease as expected, the Fed may keep interest rates high, reducing investor interest in gold.

Technical Signal Analysis

Upward Breakout Pattern

XAUUSD surged over $250 in a short period, indicating strong buying momentum. This often signals the potential for continued upward movement.

RSI Index

Currently, RSI is in the overbought zone, suggesting a short-term correction. However, if buying pressure remains, a high RSI level can indicate a strong bullish trend.

Support and Resistance Dynamics

Levels at $3,859 and $3,782 are identified as key supports. If prices retrace to these levels and show signs of recovery, it may be a good entry point.

Trading Strategies

Strategy 1: Buy on Retracements

Since the main trend is bullish, wait for a pullback to key support levels. When the price approaches $3,859 or $3,782 and shows reversal signals, it’s an ideal entry point. Set stop-loss below the next support level and target previous highs.

Strategy 2: Test of Breakout

When XAUUSD breaks above $4,000, this level becomes a new support. Wait for the price to retest this level. When signs of bounce-back and increased trading volume appear, it’s a good entry signal.

Strategy 3: Fibonacci Retracement

Draw from the start of the rally ( around $3,500) to the recent high ( $4,059). The 38.2% and 61.8% levels serve as potential support zones for buying.

Price Projection in Thailand

Using Goldman Sachs’ target of $4,900, if XAUUSD reaches that level, 96.5% gold bars in Thailand could reach 75,000–80,000 baht per baht within 2026. Although there may be corrections along the way for profit-taking, the overall trend remains bullish.

Conclusion

Leading financial institutions’ forecasts indicate that gold prices are likely to continue rising, especially in 2026–2027, considering central bank accumulation, trade tensions, and ETF capital inflows.

However, investors should be aware of market volatility. Proper timing, setting stop-loss points, and having a clear trading plan are essential. Fundamental principles remain crucial: be patient, wait for the right moment, and always stick to your trading plan.