A research institution recently released an outlook for the crypto market in 2026, which includes an interesting perspective: the traditional "four-year cycle" may be becoming obsolete.

Why? The report provides three key reasons. First, the demand side has changed—new sources of funding and new application scenarios are constantly emerging. Second, the macro environment is favorable, with the overall economic climate being relatively friendly to crypto assets. Third, and very importantly, regulatory attitudes are continuously improving, and this has a significant positive impact on market confidence.

From a macro perspective, the market is currently digesting the expectation that the Federal Reserve may further ease monetary policy. What does this mean for assets like BTC? Historical experience shows that an environment with ample liquidity is usually beneficial for digital assets. So the question becomes—how far can this cycle go? Has the traditional cycle theory really become invalid? It’s worth ongoing attention.