Thoughts after reading "Why Do Nations Go Bankrupt: The Great Cycle" - Top Global Cryptocurrency Exchange Platform

Dalio’s research on cycles is much deeper than that of most investors.

Currently, he has shifted from pursuing wealth to seeking a lasting legacy.

First, he already has enough wealth,

Second, he is 76 years old.

Dalio believes that we are now at the end of a major debt cycle,

similar to the pre-World War I and World War II periods.

Therefore, he predicts that,

a global debt crisis and military conflicts will soon emerge.

Indeed,

the debt levels of major countries have already reached very dangerous levels.

Especially the United States and Japan,

not only do they have enormous existing debt,

but their fiscal deficits are also continuously expanding.

As interest rates rise,

a debt crisis is imminent.

Gold prices are soaring,

Japanese bond yields are rising steadily,

both are market votes.

Dalio has also proposed his solution: three parts at 3%.

However,

even he himself would not believe that the US government can truly implement this plan.

He proposed this plan only as a last resort hope.

The issue is not whether this plan can solve the problem,

but that it is against human nature,

and given the current US situation, they lack the capacity to implement this correct plan.

Therefore,

a future debt crisis is unavoidable,

and creditors will suffer significant losses.

However, slightly different from Dalio’s judgment,

a similar Great Depression 100 years ago will not happen,

nor will a third world war.

The debt crisis will definitely be resolved through a significant devaluation of fiat currency.

The reasons why a third world war is unlikely are based on the following:

1. Whether the next industrial revolution involves AI or not,

it will only occur in China or be led by China.

This is determined by fundamentals,

without a solid foundation,

it is impossible to build tall buildings.

2. Based on the current situation and the judgment in point 1,

the future global structure will be one superpower with multiple strong nations,

there is no basis for a worldwide war.

3. The development philosophy of the leading superpower ensures it will not initiate large-scale wars.