2026-01-07 07:29:23

Where exactly is the focus of the current crypto market?

Recently, the situation in Venezuela has been quite intense, with various news flying around. But frankly, these regional events have little actual impact on the crypto space and can only be considered short-term emotional disturbances. Venezuela's oil production capacity has long been significantly reduced, with almost no substantial impact on the global energy landscape, let alone shaking the long-term logic of cryptocurrencies. We've seen many similar black swan events; they often cause a stir, then fade away within a week or two.

The two things that truly require attention are:

First, the upcoming US non-farm payroll report. This data has always been a weather vane for Federal Reserve policy adjustments. If employment growth continues strongly, with new jobs exceeding 200,000, and the unemployment rate remains stable, market expectations for rate cuts this year will continue to decline. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is just over 16%. If the non-farm data is hawkish, a strong dollar is almost inevitable, and short-term pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum will be difficult to avoid.

Conversely, if the data shows weakness, significantly below market expectations, expectations for rate cuts will rebound quickly, liquidity conditions will improve, and BTC may attempt to retest previous highs.

Second, tariff issues. This could be the biggest variable at the start of the year. The current policy discussions repeatedly mention the possibility of tariffs on major trading partners. If quickly implemented, it will likely temporarily boost inflation expectations, thereby limiting the Fed's room to cut rates and putting pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. But from a medium- to long-term perspective, the actual impact of such trade frictions on the market remains to be seen.

In summary: the recent market rhythm largely depends on the progress of non-farm data and tariff policy implementation. Be cautious but not overly panicked.

BTC0,33%

ETH0,05%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

20 Likes

Reward
20
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

CryptoTarotReader

· 7h ago

Non-farm payrolls are the real main event, and we also need to keep a close eye on tariffs. The issues in Venezuela are really just noise. Honestly, it's just waiting for the Federal Reserve's stance. If the rate cut dreams are shattered, it will be tough in the short term. This tariff trap, once triggered, will cause inflation to jump out and be annoying. Weak non-farm payrolls are our opportunity; otherwise, we might have to continue sideways trading. Now is the most testing time for mental resilience—see who can hold on. The strength of the dollar has indeed put pressure on BTC these days, but that's just surface-level. Liquidity is the real hard currency; who has the money makes the rules. But to be honest, tariffs are too unpredictable; no one can forecast them accurately.

View OriginalReply0

DiamondHands

· 01-09 06:05

That thing in Venezuela was really just a paper tiger, the hype died down in a week. This non-farm payroll report is the real deal; a 16% chance of rate cuts is truly disappointing. Once the dollar takes off, the crypto market will be hard to breathe. Tariffs are the most powerful card; if they really come down, it will trigger an inflation spiral. The Federal Reserve will be directly locked up. Let's wait and see the data; anyway, I've already reduced my holdings.

View OriginalReply0

LightningWallet

· 01-09 02:39

Non-farm payrolls are the real catalyst; the Venezuela incident is just noise. Wait, will tariffs really become a black swan? It feels like the market hasn't reacted yet. In the short term, whether BTC can survive depends on the Federal Reserve's stance. The expectation of rate cuts has dropped from 16% to this level. What does that indicate? Is the employment data really that strong? Liquidity is the key; everything else is nonsense. If tariffs are pushed to the maximum, all risk assets will kneel, not just cryptocurrencies.

View OriginalReply0

NftRegretMachine

· 01-07 13:35

Non-farm payrolls day, we're probably going to be fooled again. I'm already tired of this routine. If tariffs can really be implemented, the crypto market will likely decline, but who knows with so many policy bluffs. Venezuela and similar issues are indeed noise. Those still speculating on this are unprofessional. A 16% probability of interest rate cuts means it's basically impossible. When the non-farm payrolls are released, it will either crash or rebound. It's that simple. Tariffs + a strong dollar, brothers, BTC is in trouble. The real variables are still these two; everything else is just a backdrop. What's so cautious about? Anyway, everyone is betting on the non-farm payrolls.

View OriginalReply0

DegenTherapist

· 01-07 07:55

Non-farm payrolls are the real deal; tariffs won't make much of a difference. The situation in Venezuela is not worth paying attention to. --- The US dollar remains strong and will need to continue to hold through the end of the year. With such low expectations for rate cuts, when will the reversal happen? --- Tariffs have been discussed for so long, but no real progress yet. Let's wait for the non-farm payrolls before making any moves. --- Black swan events are everywhere, but the true direction of the crypto market still depends on what the Fed folks are thinking. --- A 16% probability of rate cuts, this number looks unlikely. Short-term pressure still needs to be endured. --- Liquidity is the key. If data remains weak, BTC can still surge to new highs. --- While tariff risks are significant, they are uncertain. The non-farm payroll data is more urgent. Let's see how it unfolds this week. --- Instead of obsessing over Venezuela, it's better to keep an eye on the US dollar index trend. Truly. --- The space for rate cuts has been squeezed out. Once inflation expectations rise, risk assets will all suffer together. --- If non-farm payrolls are strong, we still need to endure. Be prepared for potential downturns.

View OriginalReply0

MonkeySeeMonkeyDo

· 01-07 07:52

Wait, will the non-farm payroll data be a surprise this time? I bet there's a 16% chance that the Fed will really be ruthless and not cut rates. Tariffs are the real bombshell, Venezuela is just a smokescreen. If non-farm payrolls are weak, we can go all in, it's that simple. They're still hyping black swan events, same old tricks. The rate cut expectations can't be pushed, we might have to wait a bit longer.

View OriginalReply0

OnchainHolmes

· 01-07 07:45

Non-farm payrolls are the real deal; the situation in Venezuela is just a smokescreen. Wait, if the trade war chess game is played out, it will be troublesome. Cutting interest rates is still a distant hope; if it continues like this, the coin prices won't be able to hold. That's reasonable, but who can accurately predict non-farm payrolls? It's just gambling. Liquidity is the key; don't be swayed by the news. Venezuela? Just hype. If you're truly optimistic, you need to keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's moves. That makes sense, I should prepare some bullets for bottom-fishing. Brilliant, finally someone hit the nail on the head. The trade war is really easy to overlook.

View OriginalReply0

SatoshiNotNakamoto

· 01-07 07:39

Nonsense, Venezuela's little issues can't really shake up the crypto world; it's all emotional traders shouting around. Non-farm payrolls are the real killer move; hawkish data causes BTC to drop directly. The tariffs are indeed a bit uncertain; we need to keep a close eye on them.

View OriginalReply0

AlphaLeaker

· 01-07 07:31

Non-farm payroll data is the real trump card; the issues in Venezuela are simply not enough to watch. Waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision to see the proof. Tariff issues are the most brain-burning this year; who can predict the policy's thought process? The rate cut expectation is a bit uncertain, with a 16% probability indicating the market is still scheming. Honestly, liquidity is the lifeblood of BTC; everything else is just fleeting. Once non-farm payroll data is released, it's either celebration or cutting losses; there's hardly a third option. If tariffs really move forward, all risk assets will be caught in the crossfire, including our coins. Black swan events are the best opportunities to cut leeks; I've seen many tricks. When the dollar is strong, don't expect BTC to fly; reality is just that harsh. So, caution is right, but don't let the news scare you into bad sleep every day.

View OriginalReply0