2026-01-07 07:30:45

#数字资产行情上升 Non-farm payroll data lands, gold still has a chance—2026 macro outlook

Recently, the gold market has been stirring again. When the non-farm payroll data is released, it can instantly move gold prices by thirty or fifty dollars—this thing is basically a "market indicator." The key is how it influences the Federal Reserve's decisions—expectations of rate cuts reduce the cost of holding gold, and the dollar also weakens accordingly, which is a double positive for gold prices. Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations and is strong, it may trigger a short-term pullback, but don’t panic; the medium- to long-term trend remains largely unchanged.

A detail worth noting: the first 30 minutes after the non-farm payroll release is a critical window for setting the direction. Algorithmic trading in the first minute can amplify volatility, leading to flash crashes or trap-outs—be careful not to get shaken out.

Looking at the current market support: 95% of global central banks plan to continue buying gold. The net gold purchase expectation for 2026 is between 750-950 tons, effectively installing a "downside stop-loss" for gold prices. Plus, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates 2-3 times next year, combined with geopolitical risks and dollar credit concerns, safe-haven factors are stacking up, and institutions are optimistic. Leading firms like CITIC and Goldman Sachs have target prices of $4900-$5100 per ounce, indicating overall market optimism.

From an operational perspective, medium- to long-term investors can consider gradually accumulating during non-farm payroll pullbacks, with the $4200-$4300 range being a good entry point. Short-term traders should closely monitor data performance and the $4400-$4600 volatility zone. When prices break above previous highs, go long; if they drop to key support levels, take a light short position—but be sure to strictly stop-loss to prevent being caught off guard during extreme market moves.

Overall, the fundamentals for gold bulls remain solid, but trading rhythm must keep pace with this "super catalyst"—the non-farm payroll data.

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SerumSquirter

· 3h ago

Non-farm payrolls are just a damn gambling game. The most exaggerated crash in the first 30 minutes, once hit, I never dared to touch it again. The central bank is疯狂囤金 (crazy hoarding gold), now someone is taking the bait on gold prices. I'm also lurking in the 4200-4300 range. They say the fundamentals are stable, but it's still following the Fed's lead. If the rate cut expectations change, everything is ruined. Gold bulls are so optimistic, I'm actually a bit nervous. Stop-loss is the key. Not setting a stop-loss is a gambler's mentality. Don't blame the market for being ruthless. CITIC, Goldman Sachs calling for 5100? Is this wave another prelude to cutting the leeks again? Non-farm payroll data is just a "super catalyst." I love watching the extreme market reactions at this moment. I'm optimistic, but I still trust my feel. Market intuition can save lives.

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GasFeeCrier

· 01-09 02:34

The 30 minutes after the Non-Farm Payrolls data are really a meat grinder. I got cut there last time, and now I have psychological shadows just seeing the countdown. The central bank teamed up with the pallet; there's no suspense above 4900. The key is whether we can withstand the short-term snipers. Buying the dip in batches is indeed the right approach, but honestly, who can accurately hit 4300? I think it's mostly about luck. Gold bulls are steady, but I'm just worried that next year the Federal Reserve might suddenly change its stance. By then, Goldman Sachs' target price will become a joke.

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memecoin_therapy

· 01-08 18:15

As soon as the non-farm payrolls are released, it's a bloodbath. We small retail investors are really incredible, haha.

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FUD_Vaccinated

· 01-08 15:27

The non-farm payrolls are about to cause another plunge. I bet 5 bucks someone will chase the high and get trapped. --- The central bank is frantically hoarding gold, and this signal couldn't be clearer. Installing a stop-loss on the decline is the way to stay safe. --- Those who entered at 4300 are laughing to death. I'm still waiting for a lower price. --- It sounds nice, but in reality, it's just betting on the dollar's devaluation. It might reverse again. --- Nightmare for short-term traders: every 30 minutes before the non-farm payrolls, they get liquidated. --- Goldman Sachs's target price of 5100, if I believe you, brother, it's over. --- Is it really different this time? We said the same last year. --- Will there be two or three rate cuts in 2026? The Federal Reserve isn't that optimistic. --- Dipping in batches sounds easy, but in reality, I'm always the one getting caught. --- Geopolitical risks are indeed the moat protecting gold prices, that's reliable. --- Algorithmic trading kills retail traders in seconds, so I might as well not touch the first minute. --- The 4400-4600 oscillation range has been held for a year. It's really just chopping the leeks back and forth.

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LayerZeroEnjoyer

· 01-07 08:00

Non-farm data is really the ultimate indicator; I've seen the flash crashes within 30 minutes many times. Is it coming again this time? The central bank's massive gold purchases truly boost confidence; the 750-ton gold buying volume can't be pulled down. Waiting in the 4200-4300 range, ready to slam hard when the pullback happens. CITIC and Goldman Sachs' target price of 5100 feels a bit overly optimistic. Those who can't keep up with the non-farm rhythm will be directly beaten by the market.

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CountdownToBroke

· 01-07 07:57

Once the non-farm payroll data is released, I’ll know right away. This time, I’ll be waiting in the 4200-4300 range, just worried that algorithmic trading will trigger another fake-out. The central bank buying gold is credible; a purchase volume of 750-950 tons is indeed a bottom line. No wonder institutions are bullish on 4900+. Don’t be careless within the next 30 minutes. Last time, I got shaken out by a flash crash and ended up losing everything. The expectation of interest rate cuts is really a magic potion for gold. When the dollar weakens, gold prices soar. This logic makes sense. In the short term, it’s a gamble of luck. Instead of chasing highs, it’s better to wait for a pullback. Strict stop-losses are the key to survival. Suddenly remembered the geopolitical risks. When safe-haven buying kicks in, who knows how high gold can spike. I’ve been watching the 4400-4600 range for a long time. Just waiting to see when it can break through.

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SmartContractPhobia

· 01-07 07:57

Non-farm data is really a money-making machine for cutting leeks; the first 30 minutes are definitely hammered down. --- Now I have to watch the non-farm data again, I’m so annoyed with this report. --- Entry at 4200? I just want to know if it will really drop to this level haha. --- The central bank is aggressively buying gold, retail investors are still debating when to jump in, what a gap. --- Medium to long-term hype sounds good, but I still prefer short-term quick in and out. --- Stop loss, stop loss, always talking about stop loss, but some people never follow the rules. --- Breaking the previous high, then going long? I think it’s probably another sharp drop in the opposite direction. --- 95% of central banks are buying, so gold prices in 2026 will definitely surge. --- Algorithmic trading crashed in the first minute, no wonder retail investors can’t react in time. --- Only the likes of CITIC and Goldman Sachs are optimistic about this wave; they just talk nicely.

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MetaMisery

· 01-07 07:56

Non-farm data really causes a sudden drop of 30 to 50 dollars immediately after release. Algorithmic trading is ruthless... The first 30 minutes really need to be watched closely, or you'll be easily crushed. The central bank is stockpiling gold, so this time gold prices have a guaranteed floor. The medium to long term outlook remains optimistic. The 4200-4300 range is indeed worth positioning, but short-term traders have to go through the data one by one, it's mentally exhausting.

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SignatureCollector

· 01-07 07:41

Non-farm payrolls immediately reveal the situation. This wave of 4200-4300 is really a good opportunity to jump in. The central bank is frantically stockpiling gold.

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BearMarketMonk

· 01-07 07:31

The thirty minutes of non-farm payrolls are truly hellish. Only after being hit by a flash crash do you understand. --- The central bank is stockpiling gold; this move is clearly well understood. --- Entering at 4200? I think it’s not enough of a dip yet, let’s wait and see. --- Goldman Sachs is once again touting a bullish trend. Believe it or not, I only half believe it. --- The dollar’s credit is collapsing; gold is the only way out. No doubt about it. --- Short-term trading must bet on non-farm payrolls; losses and gains come quickly. --- With such strong expectations of rate cuts, it’s no wonder gold prices are falling. The bottom is right here. --- Algorithmic trading in that one minute is basically a harvest festival for cutting leeks; retail investors have to step aside. --- A purchase volume of 750 tons of gold is like buying us an insurance policy. --- The target price of 4900 is comfortable to hear, but we have to stay alive to see that day.

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