January 10th Key Moment: US Tariff Ruling Could Trigger Market Volatility

HashBard · 2026-01-07T09:44:11+00:00

The market widely关注 the Supreme Court ruling on January 10th, which could trigger adjustments in tariff policies. Analysts expect this will lead to market volatility. The refund scale可能 reach up to $600 billion, but will be paid out in installments. Some market participants believe this could be an opportunity for strategic positioning, while well-known analyst Tom Lee认为 it可能 be a contrarian signal. Traders should stay alert and implement proper risk management.

HashBard

2026-01-07 09:44:11

Abstract generation in progress

【BlockBeats】A recent market prediction has sparked controversy—this Friday, January 10th, could become the most turbulent trading day of the year. According to the latest insights from crypto analysts, the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump’s tariffs is worth paying attention to. Currently on Polymarket, the probability of this ruling leading to policy adjustments is estimated at 78%.

If the Supreme Court finds issues with the current tariff policies, it could trigger a chain reaction in the US stock market, crypto assets, and bond markets. Analysts point out that historical cases suggest such rulings could result in massive tariff refunds, with the largest scale potentially reaching $600 billion. However, these refunds are not immediate; they typically require years of litigation on a case-by-case basis, resulting in a slow cash flow impact rather than an instant market shock.

Interestingly, community opinions on this analysis are not entirely consistent. Many participants believe the refund estimates are overly optimistic, reasoning that even if market volatility occurs, it could instead present an opportunity for strategic positioning rather than signaling a true crash. Renowned trader Tom Lee also shared related discussions, but his comment was more insightful—“This could very well be a reverse signal.”

In any case, the date of January 10th is definitely a key point for traders to watch. Regardless of market fluctuations, it is wise to prepare risk management and trading plans in advance.

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LiquidatedAgain

· 15h ago

Once again predicting a black swan, 78% probability? I wonder how this number is even higher than my liquidation probability haha It's worth a thousand gold to know earlier, let's wait until Friday to talk about it. Right now, only the brave are all-in 600 billion? Hold on, this money needs to be released gradually over the years. Risk control points really need to be carefully calculated, so you don't get liquidated again

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SandwichVictim

· 01-08 06:23

600 billion refunds? Just listen to it; if it really happens, it'll be years before it materializes. --- It's another probability from Polymarket; sometimes this thing is less reliable than astrology. --- The Supreme Court's ruling, and the crypto community is already spinning stories again. I bet 5 bucks it will reverse before 3 PM. --- Slow cash flow impacts and all that, it sounds like there's no impact at all. Stop scaring retail investors. --- Is Friday a black swan or just a false alarm? We're waiting to see the show. --- Massive refunds haha, legal lawsuits drag on for years. Is it even interesting to hype this now? --- Community disagreements are normal. Who can predict the market 100%... I don't believe it.

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NewDAOdreamer

· 01-07 23:10

600 billion refunds? Bro, that's way too optimistic. If I actually get half of that, I'll be lighting incense.

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SnapshotStriker

· 01-07 10:10

600 billion refunds? Hold on, that would take years of litigation, and there's no way it can be resolved in the short term. Don't be scared.

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ForkLibertarian

· 01-07 10:06

$600 billion refund? Just hear it out. The real thing is the years-long litigation process. Is it worth炒 this now?

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airdrop_whisperer

· 01-07 10:01

600 billion refunds? Haha, I've heard this story before. The key is how the distribution is handled, right? --- Wait, 78% probability on Poly? That doesn't seem right. Where is this data from? --- It's the same old story: crash tomorrow, surge tomorrow. I'm overwhelmed... Maybe I should just keep stacking coins. --- Refunds taking a few years to arrive? Might as well just go short directly. --- This is getting serious. Things will definitely be chaotic this Friday. --- Massive refunds sound sexy, but in reality... don't you guys have some sense of what's going on? --- I just want to know who can actually make money from this. Everything else is nonsense. --- A 78% probability—believe it half the time, don't take it too seriously.

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SerNgmi

· 01-07 10:01

78% chance sounds impressive, but by that day, it'll probably just be another false alarm. 600 billion, only realized after years? By then, the market will have forgotten all about it, haha. It's Polymarket again and analysts too. I just want to know who actually made money. I believe this kind of explanation based on history, but why is the prediction success rate so high every time... Slow cash flow impact sounds profound, but honestly, it just doesn't have any immediate noticeable effect.

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AllInAlice

· 01-07 09:50

78%？smh... This probability is too weak, it feels like the gambler's mentality is at play --- 600 billion? Wait, do I have to fight a lawsuit for years to get it? Should I hoard coins now or go all-in on US stocks? --- I think the probability of a crash on Friday is much higher than 78%... Anyway, it's just a routine of cutting leeks --- Tariff refunds can come slowly... Alright, then I'll just keep sleeping --- Has polymarket's team ever been accurate in their predictions? Isn't reverse operation more profitable? --- Massive refunds sound great, but the ones who really get the benefits are those institutions... Boring retail investors are about to get cut again --- Chain reaction? If BTC rises then I might as well go buy a lottery ticket --- Years of litigation... Most likely it will drag on until I forget about it --- Every time there's a big event, they say a crash is coming, but it turns out to be a false alarm... I've learned to be smarter

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ForumMiningMaster

· 01-07 09:49

There is a 78% probability that it's basically a pancake, and it's unlikely to have a big fluctuation this time. The institutions in the US stock market have already been betting. 600 billion? Just hype. Even if it's real, it would take several years to accumulate, and it won't have any short-term impact. Will it drop or rise on Friday? No one knows for sure. It's better to focus on your own positions. The most turbulent year? The last time I said that was two months ago. I'm exhausted. This tariff issue has been dragging on for so long, and in the end, it might be nothing. Just hype. Just enjoy the show. Anyway, it's not my money in court.

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