The US job market is in a "freeze" state, and the December non-farm payroll report is crucial

2026-01-08 14:00:20

【CoinPush】Recently, the US initial jobless claims data showed a mild increase, but the underlying information behind this warrants consideration. Although companies are laying off employees, the scale remains at a historically low level—simply put, while employers are cautious, it hasn’t reached the point of large-scale layoffs.

The current situation is somewhat awkward. Uncertainty around tariff policies combined with the impact of AI technology has made company bosses hesitant to hire on a large scale or to conduct mass dismissals. As a result, the labor market has fallen into a kind of “stalemate”—showing no clear signs of prosperity nor warning signs of crisis. The seasonal factors of the year-end holiday season are also causing recent data fluctuations, but the overall trend remains stable.

All eyes are now on the upcoming December non-farm payroll report to be released on Friday. Economists expect an increase of about 60,000 non-farm jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to drop from 4.6% in November (a four-year high) to 4.5%. However, don’t forget that November’s unemployment data was affected by the 43-day federal government shutdown, so this comparison still needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

This report is highly significant for the market—it directly influences expectations of the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, which in turn impacts the entire asset allocation logic.

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ImpermanentPhobia

· 01-09 16:53

This deadlock, to put it simply, is capital waiting for the wind direction. Who dares to move? --- Under the dual pressure of tariffs and AI, the bosses' moves are really brilliant—neither expanding recruitment nor laying off staff... Gambling mentality? --- Can 60,000 new jobs stop the bleeding? The numbers look good but seem meaningless. --- The US labor market has become Schrödinger's bull market. Whether it's bullish or not depends on the report this Friday. --- Haha, during times of policy uncertainty, companies choose to stand still. Isn't that risk aversion? --- Wait, will the unemployment rate drop from 4.6 to 4.5? Is that real? --- Stalemate in the labor market = retail investors are trapped, with no upward or downward movement, the most uncomfortable situation.

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ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 01-08 14:30

Just waiting to see what the December non-farm payroll report says. It feels like this wave of data could either skyrocket or crash completely. That pile of tariff policies and other issues indeed have bosses on the sidelines. Who dares to make a move? Unemployment rate at 4.6% hitting a new high? That's so ironic. Looks stable on the surface, but actually stagnant. A bit frustrating. The state of the labor market, to put it simply, is everyone gambling—betting on what the Federal Reserve will do next. Actually, this kind of "neither hiring nor firing" approach is the most dangerous. Any small change could trigger a big crash. Wait, this is exactly the same as the current state of the crypto world... everyone is waiting for key data to decide. Honestly, an increase of 60,000 new jobs is a bit too optimistic. I think it’s unlikely. This Friday might be disappointing.

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tokenomics_truther

· 01-08 14:22

Is that all? 60,000 new additions? Laughing out loud, when this data comes out, the Federal Reserve will probably pretend to be asleep again. AI replacing humans, unclear tariff policies, bosses all waiting and watching... this is not stalemate, it's just waiting for the wind to come. Non-farm payrolls will be revealed on Friday, and it will be another round of harvesting the chives. The unemployment rate dropping might actually be more dangerous; those who jump in now are all chives. To put it bluntly, the US labor market is now a game of chess, retail investors can't see through it.

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GlueGuy

· 01-08 14:18

The deadlock state is the most disgusting, neither making money nor escaping, only when Friday's data comes out will the true nature be revealed.

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SoliditySlayer

· 01-08 14:18

This "stalemate" state essentially means everyone is waiting to see what the Federal Reserve will do next. Companies' current mindset is to do nothing if they can avoid it. If non-farm payroll data really rebounds, that would be interesting... but it seems quite challenging. How long will the tariffs continue to be stirred up? Business owners have no clear idea. The number of jobs AI has eliminated may have already exceeded the surface data, and that's the real issue. The report on Friday is expected to become a definitive signal for short-term market trends; whether it rises or falls, there's a story behind it. This market now feels like walking a tightrope—whoever moves first will lose.

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AirdropChaser

· 01-08 14:10

It's a bit amusing how contradictory it is—bosses neither dare to hire nor to lay off. Whoever bears this stalemate will feel uncomfortable. Can December's non-farm payroll data save the market? I bet the 60,000 new jobs are just a gimmick. Tariffs + AI double pressure, no wonder the labor market feels dead. Let's wait for Friday's show. Unemployment rate drops from 4.6 to 4.5? Is the data really that honest? I find it hard to believe. Year-end holiday season causing disruptions—I've heard this reason too many times. Ultimately, there's still no demand.

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GateUser-a180694b

· 01-08 14:07

Stalemate? This is just waiting for the right moment; whoever moves first will lose, haha. We need to pay close attention to the data this Friday, as it will determine whether the major trend can be confirmed. Under the dual pressures of tariffs and AI, the bosses are all feeling nervous. The unemployment rate has improved, which sounds good, but only 60,000 new jobs? That's a bit disappointing. This is probably an application of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in economics. All eyes are on the data; everything depends on this December non-farm payroll report. Basically, the market is betting—betting on whose story is more compelling. The scale of layoffs at historic lows is actually more dangerous, indicating that there's really no money left to tinker with.

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GasBankrupter

· 01-08 14:02

Everyone is waiting for the December Non-Farm Payrolls, feeling that regardless of the data being good or bad, a big move is coming. --- With dual pressures from tariffs and AI, companies are really stuck, neither hiring nor laying off. --- 60,000 new jobs? That number seems a bit shaky; it might surprise us with a cold splash. --- Unemployment rate drops from 4.6% to 4.5%, sounds good, but the real story is in the "stalemate." --- The labor market has frozen, what does this mean for the crypto world? Will money flow into cryptocurrencies? --- End-of-year data looks like this, too much noise, only waiting for Non-Farm Payrolls to see the clear direction. --- Companies are neither hiring nor making large layoffs, probably saving strength for the upcoming wave of layoffs next year. --- The most feared thing about this "awkward" situation is a sudden breakthrough; see you on Friday. --- It seems the 60,000 expectation from economists will never be met; extreme data is now the norm.

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