When "Insider Whale" controls one-third of the market: The $1.1 billion gamble on Hyperliquid and the survival rules for retail investors

A transparent "black box operation"

While ordinary investors are still debating whether Bitcoin can break through $90,000, on-chain data reveals an unsettling fact: two mysterious whale addresses have nearly simultaneously built long positions totaling over $1.1 billion on Hyperliquid, accounting for one-third of all open longs on the platform. More intriguingly, the holdings, opening prices, and targets of the new whale 0x94d closely overlap with the legendary "BTC OG Insider Whale," as if following the same "internal operation manual."

This "newbie" who transferred 255 BTC into Hyperliquid just 22 days ago has earned $9.9 million in profit through 69 high-frequency trades, with a win rate of 62%. However, its latest move is even more eye-catching: currently holding $310 million in long positions across BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. Although the unrealized loss is only $1.4 million, the size of the position is enough to influence the entire market sentiment.

Hyperliquid: The new playground for whales

Why are the most perceptive smart money flocking to Hyperliquid? The answer lies in the data.

By 2025, Hyperliquid's annual revenue will reach an astonishing $908 million, with a net profit of $843 million. After deducting incentive expenses, it still has $420 million net income. Founded in 2023, this decentralized perpetual contract platform, with its order book model and self-custody mechanism, has successfully attracted professional traders accustomed to CeX. Low fees, high capital efficiency, and fully transparent position data—these features make it an ideal battlefield for whales.

More importantly, after the FTX collapse, trust in centralized exchanges among large traders has suffered a permanent rift. Hyperliquid just fills this gap: it can offer trading depth comparable to CeX while ensuring asset autonomy. When entities like "BTC OG Whale" deposit millions of dollars in margin, they are not gambling—they are choosing a "safer" casino.

Decoding the whale's "insider trading" playbook

1. Information advantage: Beyond technical analysis

According to Chain Catcher analysis, the most notable feature of this whale is its operations highly synchronized with Trump’s statements and US policy developments. Hours before the market sharply declined on October 11, it precisely positioned $500 million in BTC shorts, earning nearly $10 million—such timing correlation is no coincidence. When BitForex CEO publicly acknowledged a connection to this address, everything became clear: this is not prediction, but pre-knowledge.

2. Leverage philosophy: Conservative aggression

Surprisingly, these whales do not use the common 20-25x leverage in crypto markets but opt for 3-5x "moderate leverage." What appears conservative actually hides secrets:

• Margin buffer: ETH long liquidation price at 2,300 USD with 5x leverage, leaving over 30% safety margin

• Capital scale: When principal reaches tens of millions, 5x leverage can create billion-level positions without taking higher risks

• Sentiment signals: Relatively conservative leverage allows long-term holding, acting as a "stabilizer" or "sword of Damocles" in the market

3. Position coordination: Double anchoring effect

Two independent whales opening positions around the same time and at similar prices on the same asset is no coincidence. Possible explanations include:

• Same trader: different addresses to diversify risk

• Information sharing: collective action within a core info circle

• Strategy imitation: the latter copying the successful pattern of the former

Regardless of the truth, the result is: the synergy of $1.1 billion positions can create a "self-fulfilling prophecy." When the market knows that whales hold 16,699 BTC at a cost basis of $90,801, shorts will think twice.

Survival rules for retail investors

In the face of such market patterns, what should retail investors do?

First, acknowledge information disadvantages. Don’t try to guess the whales’ next move; their decisions are based on information you cannot access. Instead of chasing whale footprints, stick to your own strategic framework.

Second, treat whale positions as volatility indicators. The concentration of $1.1 billion in longs means that if the market reverses, a chain of liquidations could trigger a collapse. When unrealized losses grow from $140,000 to tens of millions, panic liquidations could instantly break key support levels. Use their liquidation prices as your risk control reference.

Third, beware of the illusion of "decentralization." Although Hyperliquid is a DEX, highly concentrated positions make it easier to manipulate than CeX. When one-third of longs are held by just two addresses, "decentralization" is just a technical term.

Fourth, learn rather than imitate. Study their leverage management, position diversification, and risk control, but don’t copy blindly. The on-chain data you see is already historical, and the market always moves forward.

The new normal in 2025

This $1.1 billion gamble reveals the brutal truth about the evolution of the crypto market: as institutional funds and "insider" whales enter, information advantage is amplified infinitely, and transparency becomes a tool for manipulation. Hyperliquid’s rise is not a victory for decentralization but a reluctant choice by professional traders after losing trust in traditional CeX.

When whales publicly display their massive positions on-chain, they are not "being transparent" but setting a bigger trap—letting the market do the work for them. Every increase in longs is a silent declaration of war: who dares to short?

As ordinary investors, what we can do is not join this asymmetric game but recognize our position: you are here to invest, not to gamble. Set stop-losses, control leverage, ignore noise, and hold long-term—these old principles, in the era of whales, become the most effective survival strategies.

After all, when the biggest players in the casino can see everyone’s hole cards, the wisest move is to go less often.

【Interactive Topic】

Do you think that the control of decentralized platforms by whales violates the spirit of blockchain? Would you choose:

A. Follow whale operations and try to share the pie

B. Stay away from high leverage and stick to spot investing

C. Study whale patterns and optimize your own strategy

Share your opinions in the comments, like, and share with more investors! Follow CoinCircle Gold Digger for in-depth weekly analysis of the stories behind on-chain data.