January 15, 2026 ETH Price Trend

I. Review of ETH's Price Movement Since 2024 (with Trend Chart Logic)
First, analyze key nodes through a simplified weekly trend chart:
Price (USD)
5000 ── Historical resistance level (extension of 2021 bull market high)
4500 ───── Mid-term target (if突破4000)
4000 ─── April 2024 high (driven by BTC halving)
3800 ────────┐
3500 ─────┤ Upper boundary of consolidation zone (recent resistance)
3200 ───┤ Strong support level (tested multiple times without breaking)
3000 ─────┘ │
2800 ────┘ Lower boundary of consolidation zone (correction support)
1500 ────────────● Starting point at the beginning of 2024 (initial rebound)
Time → January 2024 February March April May June July (Forecast)
1. Phase 1: Early Year Rebound (Jan-Mar) — Driven by Dencun Upgrade
Background: Ethereum completes Dencun upgrade in March 2024 (EIP-4844 implemented), significantly reducing Layer 2 transaction costs (L2 fees down 90%), leading to a surge in ecosystem activity.
Trend: From $1500 in January, rising to $2200 before the upgrade in March, then accelerating to above $3000 after the upgrade, with the weekly chart first stabilizing above $3000.
Key signals: Weekly MACD bullish crossover, increased volume, confirming bottom reversal.
2. Phase 2: Halving Rally (April) — Led by BTC’s surge
Background: BTC completes its fourth halving in April 2024, market sentiment heats up, “altcoin season” expectations rise, ETH benefits as the second-largest market cap asset.
Trend: ETH peaks above $4000 in mid-April (new high since May 2022), but due to BTC correction, it falls back to around $3500 by month-end.
Key signals: Daily chart hits resistance at $4000 forming a “double top” pattern, short-term profit-taking pressure emerges.
3. Phase 3: Consolidation (May-June) — Increased Bulls and Bears Competition
Background: Post-halving, the market enters a “digestive period,” ETH faces a range-bound battle between strong support at $3200 and resistance at $3800-4000; meanwhile, progress on Ethereum spot ETF applications (by institutions like BlackRock) supports long-term outlook.
Trend: Narrow fluctuations between $3200-$3500, multiple tests of $3200 without breaking (forming a “triple bottom”), resistance at $3800 evident (two failed attempts to break higher).
Key signals: Weekly moving averages remain bullish (5-week > 10-week > 20-week), but daily RSI hovers between 50-60, lacking clear direction.
II. Current Core Driving Logic (Key to Future Trends)
1. Fundamentals: Three Major Long-term Supports
Layer2 Ecosystem Boom: Post-Dencun, total locked value (TVL) in L2s rises from $20 billion to over $30 billion, with Arbitrum, Optimism, etc., increasing their transaction share to over 30% of ETH mainnet, reinforcing demand for ETH as “gas fee payment asset.”
Staking Economy Deepening: ETH staking rate stabilizes at 25%-30% (around 30 million ETH locked), with annualized staking yields of 3%-5%, reducing circulating supply over the long term and supporting supply-demand balance.
ETF Expectations Heating Up: Following approval of BTC spot ETF, SEC’s attitude towards ETH ETF shifts to “active review” (BlackRock’s application has been accepted). If approved in the second half of 2024, it could attract hundreds of billions in traditional funds.
2. Technical Aspects: Critical “Bull-Bear Boundary” Levels
Support Levels: $3200 (recent three tests without breaking, aligned with weekly 20-day MA support), $3000 (psychological level + previous consolidation platform);
Resistance Levels: $3800 (post-April rebound high), $4000 (new high in 2024, breaking above opens upside space);
Indicator signals: Weekly MACD remains in bullish zone (red bars shrinking but not turning green), daily KDJ near 50, waiting for “golden cross/death cross” signals.
3. Macro and Market Sentiment
BTC Correlation: ETH’s correlation with BTC is as high as 0.8, BTC’s rise or fall directly impacts ETH’s short-term sentiment (e.g., if BTC drops below $60,000, ETH likely follows).
Macro Benefits: Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle nearing end, expectations of rate cuts in H2 2024, weakening USD benefits risk assets (cryptocurrencies);
Regulatory Clarity: US crypto regulatory framework becoming clearer (approval of BTC ETF), ETH’s POS mechanism makes it more environmentally friendly, with less regulatory pressure than small-cap tokens.
III. Future Trend Predictions (Scenario Analysis)
Based on trend charts and driving logic, ETH’s future can be divided into three scenarios:
Scenario 1: Breakout Uptrend (Probability 40%) — Trigger Conditions
Conditions: ① Volume breakout above $4000 (daily volume increases by 50%+ compared to previous periods); ② BTC stabilizes above $70,000 and drives “altcoin season”; ③ Rumors of ETH ETF approval materialize.
Trend: After breaking $4000, target rises to $4500-$5000 (upper boundary of weekly upward channel), possibly challenging the 2021 all-time high of $4878.
Scenario 2: Range-bound Consolidation (Probability 50%) — Current Mainstream Scenario
Conditions: ① Support at $3200 holds, resistance at $3800 remains unbroken; ② BTC fluctuates between $60,000-$70,000; ③ No clear progress on ETF approval.
Trend: Continue oscillating between $3200-$3800, waiting for “catalysts” (such as major L2 upgrades or ETF approval) to break the stalemate.
Scenario 3: Downward Correction (Probability 10%) — Risk Scenario
Trigger Conditions: ① Break below support at $3200 (e.g., BTC crashes below $50,000); ② SEC rejects ETH ETF; ③ Major vulnerabilities in Layer2 ecosystem (e.g., security incidents).
Trend: Correction to $2800-$3000, testing long-term upward trendline support; if stabilized, still seen as “buying opportunity on dips.”
IV. Trading Recommendations
Aggressive: Gradually build positions at $3200-$3300 (stop-loss at $3150), add on breakout above $4000 (target $4500);
Conservative: Wait for volume breakout above $4000 to chase the trend (confirming trend), or dollar-cost average for long-term trend (ignore short-term volatility);
Risk Management: Keep position size within 20% of total assets, avoid leverage trading.