5 Bear Market Signals Are Flashing for Bitcoin This January

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: 5 Bear Market Signals Are Flashing for Bitcoin This January Original Link: January has been volatile so far for Bitcoin (BTC), with the asset facing renewed headwinds amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Over the past 24 hours, the largest cryptocurrency has fallen nearly 2.5% to $92,663. Meanwhile, analysts are pointing to key bear market signals emerging in 2026.

Bearish Kumo Twist Appears on Bitcoin Chart

Analyst Titan of Crypto pointed to a “Kumo twist” appearing in Bitcoin’s weekly chart. A Kumo twist is a formation that occurs when the two leading spans of the Ichimoku Cloud (Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B) cross, causing the future cloud to flip direction. Depending on the direction of the crossover, it can signal a potential transition from bullish to bearish conditions or vice versa. In Bitcoin’s case, the current twist is bearish.

Looking at previous market cycles, similar weekly Kumo shifts preceded notable corrective phases, during which Bitcoin eventually recorded drawdowns of around 67% to 70%. Historically, when the weekly Kumo turned bearish, BTC entered a bear market phase. That doesn’t imply an immediate drop—it simply means the overall market structure and trend dynamics have shifted.

Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Barriers

Bitcoin currently trades below its 365-day moving average, which sits near $101,000. This barrier was key during the 2022 bear market, when it halted recovery rallies. Bitcoin’s position below this moving average signals that the market is still in bearish conditions.

Further technical analysis using the Gaussian Channel on a five-day chart supports these concerns. Bitcoin has lost the channel’s median level, and losing and failing to retest this level successfully have historically marked the start of a more aggressive phase of bear markets. Analysts suggest a retest around the $103k zone or possibly slightly higher for a liquidity hunt.

Historical Drawdown Patterns Suggest More Declines

Bitcoin’s price history shows a recurring pattern of sharp declines following cycle peaks. After topping in 2013, Bitcoin fell by about 75.9%, followed by an 81.2% drawdown after the 2017 high and roughly a 74% decline after the 2021 peak.

In the current cycle, the pullback has been far more modest, with losses just above 30%—a comparatively small correction by historical standards. This suggests the downturn may be in its early stages, with further drops still possible as the cycle progresses.

Market Cycle Indicator Signals Bitcoin Bear Phase Still Developing

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which tracks broader market phases, shows bearish conditions began in October 2025. However, it has not yet moved into an extreme bear phase. By this metric, BTC is in bear market territory, and in every past cycle the market has extended into extreme bear conditions, which suggests lower levels are still likely.

Exchange Inflows Reveal Distribution by Major Holders

On-chain data shows a rise in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, dominated by mid- to large-sized holders, particularly in the 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC bands. Increased Bitcoin transfers to exchanges tend to signal growing distribution activity rather than long-term accumulation, as market participants move assets in preparation for potential selling.

This activity is more informationally significant than fragmented retail flows, as it reflects strategic decisions. From a macro on-chain perspective, the combination of elevated exchange inflows and distribution from larger cohorts suggests that the market is entering a more fragile phase.

Conclusion

Overall, Bitcoin is showing multiple bear market signals across technical, historical, and on-chain indicators. Still, whether it ultimately follows historical downside patterns or surprises the market with renewed strength remains uncertain.